policy

Us Territories

In search of a Pacific policy

By Tim Bruce and Mike Malone

THE American-flag islands of the North ern Marianas and Guam need a rational Pacific policy from President Bill Clinton. Located 1300 south of Japan, this Western Pacific archipelago offers a policy agenda to the new US president.

Here is a prescription for success. No Bashing: Harsh US trade measures Cerceived as hostile by Asia, particularly y Japan or China, may reawaken irrational xenophobic sentiments. The results could be an economic Cold War or worse.

Proudly flying the stars and stripes, but looking to Asian neighbours for bread and butter, these flag-islands host up to a million Japanese tourists annu ally. Guam and the Northern Marianas hope mainland economic frustrations won’t drive Clinton to a season of Asia bashing. “Politically, each morning we face Washington DC,” says Lorenzo Guerrero, Governor of the Common wealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

“But by noon we’re looking to Japan, the country that sustains our economy.”

Senator Joe T San Augustin, Speaker of the 21st Guam Legislature, put it much the same way: “Politically, we face east (Washington); economically, we face west (Asian Pacific Rim).”

The first casualty in a US-Asian Cold War will be loss of Japanese investment in the US flag islands. Last year, 900,000 Japanese tourists spent nearly 51.2 billion in the Marianas. With a total land mass the size of Dallas, Texas, the islands receive only 33 per cent fewer Japanese tourists than annually visit the entire US mainland. The economy of the mainland United States might survive such a Cold War; in fact even be stimulated by it but

economies in Guam and the Northern Marianas will be devastated. Investment Cartnership with Asian neighbours has rought the islands close to economic self-sufficiency. A sour US-Pacific re lationship will reverse the progress made since direct air links to Japan brought prosperity. Clinton must accept that in foreign policy Japan lacks a helmsman, is unpredictable and, if pushed, likely as not to veer into excessive nationalism.

Maintain a military presence: The United States now has fewer than 100,000 troops in Asia. A military pullout will remove the United States as key player in the Pacific and signal the end of US interest in the region’s political future. The last time the US made a signal like that setting a timetable for Philippine independence Japan in vaded Luzon. As the world fragments into trade blocks, there will be ever increasing opportunities for hostile con frontations. A convincing American mili tary capability is needed in Pacific East- Asia to keep peace among highly com petitive Asian countries in times of aggressive economic manoeuvreing. Case in point: China’s designs on Spratly Island oil.

Get active economically: If the United States intends to be a Pacific power, it must be active economically. As US assistant trade representative for Asia and Pacific Affairs, Sandra Kristoff, said: “One of the major changes in the new world order is that economic policy is now foreign policy. Everything revolves around economics and will continue to do so.” If the United States can’t play in the Asian-Pacific economic league, it will be a second rate power. Some believe World War II never finished. What we see is a lengthy battle in a century-long competition between the US and Japan

for control of the Pacific and Asia.

Japan’s economic victory at the end of this Century may become as significant as the American military victory in the Forties.

Japan’s pre-war finance minister, Korekiyo Takahashi, understood well: “It is much harder to nullify the results of an economic conquest than those of military conquest.” If Clinton means to see the US a Pacific power, he should; back the efforts of outfits like the Overseas Private Investment Corpor ation which encourages American invest ment in the Pacific; ask Congress to expand the Trade and Development Program; make good on Bush’s much ballyhooed and unfulfilled promise to establish a Joint Commercial Com mission for cooperative development of Pacific nations. Lastly, put some real resources into the Pacific Basin Develop ment Council, key to stimulating

political-economic development in the

US flag islands.

Respect local sovereignty. Loyal out post of the United States from the Spanish-American War through the hor ror of World War 11, the territory of Guam asks for a well-earned elevation to unique Commonwealth status within the US political family. The Northern Mari anas, the newest member of the Ameri can political family, bargained for full autonomy under a Commonwealth Covenant. Yet, Uncle Sam’s inflexible paternalism has denied islanders in Guam and the Northern Marianas real control over local affairs. The 15 islands in the Marianas chain found the Bush administration largely deaf to requests for custom made political arrangements.

In search of respect, the NMI has been forced to litigation, and Guam forced to negotiate a bureaucratic labyrinth to Commonwealth status. The Republican White House let the “one size-fits all” mentality of the Department of the Interior deal with the islands. Some local leaders hope for a repeat of the Carter days, when Democrats opened with fresh ideas and dealt sympathetically with the islands’ desire for local marine jurisdic tion.

Asian nations watch to see if they can live with Clinton. If the man from Arkansas means to announce a sincere interest in new forms of Pacific cooper ation, he can start with his own US flag islands. To demonstrate to Asia that the US means to lead in innovative political arrangements for the 21 Century, it should grant Guam the Commonwealth status it has so long desired and withdraw Federal claims to the Northern Mari ana’s ancestral marine resources.

In a stroke, and without spending a dime, the new Democratic administra tion can establish its leadership in flexible political arrangements in the Asian- Pacific. Economic success will follow. • Tim Brute Is special legal counsel to the governor of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and Mike Malone Is senior assistant to the Com monwealth’s Lt, Governor,