Weathering cyclones
p. 41 · Read in the full issue
BILL was enjoying a conversation with his neighbours on a moonless night when suddenly the light north easterly blowing that evening intensified and turned into a killer hurricane. There was no warning on the local radio station about the
approaching hurricane.
His family of five were left homeless along with hundreds of others. Thankfully, none of his family members was hurt or injured. One family at the other end of this beachfront village was not so lucky.
Al 3 year-old girl was killed as she rushed outside to avoid a falling tree. Several fishermen at sea were missing their fate unknown.
Had the villagers been warned of the approaching cyclone, they would have taken some precaution, but there was no warning.
While this anecdote is fictitious, too often, this depicts the reality in most, if
not, all Forum Island Countries. Until recently, there was little advance warning of natural disasters, particularly tropical cyclones and hurricanes. And, some warnings were way off the mark.
This has been due, in large measure, to either out-dated technology used in weather forecasting or to none at all. This, however, will be a thing of the past, thanks to the Australian government and new technology.
An early warning system to help Forum Island Countries respond to a number of weather phenomena including changes in sea level and climate is being put in place in 12 regional countries. The first of these stations, funded by the Australian government as part of its major environmental project in the South Pacific, was commissioned in Fiji last October. It was installed at Lautoka, in the country’s western sugar belt.
Similar stations have been or are being installed in Marshall Islands, Cook Islands, Kiribati, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Nauru, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Western Samoa.
This SA7-million Australian government-funded South Pacific Sea-Level and Climate Monitoring Project, adminis tered by the Australian International Development Assist ance Bureau (AIDAB) is part of Australia’s regional development assistance program. Its primary aim is long term sea level monitoring that may require 20 years to be meaningful.
However, there will be some information of immediate relevance to the Pacific Island Countries. These short-term features must be identified and understood if the “greenhouse” sea level trend is ever to be qualified.
These monitoring stations are equipped to provide infor mation on local tidal characteristics and predictions, advance warning of anomalies in sea levels, investigation into storm surges and tropical cyclones, features indicating yearly climate variability, regional sea-level topography and features of large-scale water density.
Scientists working on the project admit much still needs to be learned about the mechanism of climate change, especially in the South Pacific. They are banking on the monitoring stations to provide answers to some important questions, such as, how it is possible to identify sea level rise when there are also movements in the earth’s crust. Other questions, such as
the extent of sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean as the climate gets warmer, the shift in latitude of zonal differences in water temperature and salinity, and more water in the oceans as land ice melts, are being looked into.
Each station contains accurate instru ments which will constantly measure sea levels and associated weather conditions, provide a range of useful information, such as the pattern of the local weather and material on the incidence of extreme sea level and weather events which may help in
predicting tropical cyclones.
This information may also help with studies of the “El Nino” effect which influences weather and seasonal con ditions across the Pacific Ocean. It will also serve as navigational aid for vessels and will assist the operations of
ports and harbours.
As the data is gathered by each monitoring station, it will be sent to the National Tidal Facility at Flinders University in Adelaide, South Australia, for analysis. The result will then be fed back to scientists and government planners in Forum Island Countries to keep them fully informed about changing weather conditions and patterns.
Each station has a 20-year life, ensuring a continuous flow of climatic information to the region over that period.
The idea which gave birth to the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project was first discussed by Forum leaders at their annual summit in 1989. Leaders of Forum Island Countries saw an urgent need to monitor and collect vital scientific data on climate and sea-levels.
Forum Island leaders were concerned that if the prediction on sea-level rise proved correct, many lives would be at risk.
Many Forum Island Countries are low-lying atolls and any slight upward change in sea-level would wreak havoc, needing a massive operation to evacuate and resettle people.
Forum Island Countries do not have the resources to mount
large scale emergency operations.
The Secretary General of the Forum Secretariat, leremia Tabai, highlighted the gratitude of the Forum Island Countries in a recent statement when he thanked the Australian government for investing in this area. Tabai said Forum Island Countries are prone to natural disasters such as cyclones, earthquakes and tidal waves and the installation of this early warning system will be very useful.
“We in the islands are indebted to the Australian government and people for funding this worthy project,” Tabai said.
A committee comprising the Forum Secretariat, the South
Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), Kiri
bati, representing the Forum’s Small Island States, AIDAB, Flinders University’s National Tidal Facility, the firm, Kinhill Reidel, and the Australian National Bureau of Meteorology, is co-ordinating the project.
There is no doubt we shall know a lot more than we do now about our climatic surroundings as these stations swing into full operation, helping islanders get advance warnings about sea-level rise, cyclones and other abnormal weather con ditions.