Doomsday delayed?

By Davendra Sharma

GOVERNMENT leaders in Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Niue, among others, can rest their fears of the Greenhouse effect for a while thanks to a new United Nations study.

Several previous researches have indicated catastrophic changes in the earth’s climate by the middle of the 21st century.

But the new and independent study, carried out over two years, shows average temperatures will rise by only 1.5 centigrade during the next 70 years, a fraction of the increase feared by early scientists and experiments.

The UN study explains that sea levels would rise by significantly less than predicted thus giving low-lying islands a reprieve from the threat of floods. The report’s conclusions, based on a computer model of the world’s climate are the result of the fullest asessment possible of changes in veg etation, ocean circulation and cloud cover. They show temperatures will rise by an average of only 0.2 centigrade per

decade and suggest that previous pre dictions have substantially underesti mated the oceans’ capacity to absorb heat and slow down the damage caused by pollutants trapping warmth in the atmosphere.

Sir John Hougton, chairman of the United Nations-appointed scientifc group, said early environmentalists are guilty ofscare-mongering. “The dooms day scenario was never credible,” he said. “It is certain there will be some global warming. The question is how much that will be.”

Most islands in Tuvalu, Kiribati, Niue and some parts of the Cook Islands, Marshall Islands and even low lying islands in the Fiji group were feared would be submerged from rising sea levels as a result of the Greenhouse Effect.

The UN research found that sea levels would rise about 63 centimetres before the end of the next century, compared to five metres suggested in the gloomiest forecasts, □