Spies who

read papers

Prospects for Crisis Prediction: A South Pacific Case Study, By Ken Ross.

Canberra Papers on Strategy and De fence, No 65, Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University.

Reviewed by David Robie WHO are the prospective readers, the author asks hesitantly in the foreword to this monograph on intelligence and the South Pacific? Indeed, he adds, are there any?

Well, the short answer for this particu lar work is likely to be very few. Perhaps a handful of academics and specialist bureaucrats might find parts of it useful.

But for any general reader determined enough to penetrate the tedium there are few insights. Ross is a South Pacific analyst with the New Zealand govern ment’s External Assessments Bureau (called the intelligence bureau until two years ago). He points out that his monograph has been reviewed to ensure that there was no inclusion of classified information. Why bother?

Mirch of the information contained in Prospects for Crisis Prediction is digested from news media coverage of contempor ary events and crises in the Pacific, particularly the Fiji military coups in 1987 and the abortive constitutional coup in Vanuatu the following year.

Some readers might be surprised at the extent to which intelligence assessments of this kind rely on media reports.

Even the monograph’s cover reflects this dependency. The photograph of ni- Vanuatu land protesters in the Port Vila riot in May 1988 is mine I was the

only foreign journalist present.

A theoretical context provided in the first half of the monograph is sifted from conservative views ranging from Wash ington commentator on the CIA, Robert Gates, to Australian security analyst David Hegarty. Nobody who has chal lenged the Pacific intelligence consensus such as Noam Chomsky, Ralph McGehee, Brian Toohey or Owen Wilkes is included.

The case study focuses on Vanuatu:

exploring the political dynamics during

the power struggle between Prime Min ister Father Walter Lini and Barak Sope, formerly secretary-general of the ruling Vanua’aku Pad, and examining various scenarious for potential upheaval co inciding with next year’s elections. □