US Strategy in the

Premises of US Strategy in the Pacific Basin

A planner must proceed from objective to policy. First, we must answer the de ceptively simple question, “What does my country need or want in this region?” In the Pacific, the answer is a complex mix of positive and negative objectives.

A Peaceful Environment that Encour ages Free Trade and Economic Expan sion: Our major interest in the region is economic. More than 60 per cent of the world’s gross national product is pro duced in the Pacific Basin. Japan is our most important trading partner globally, providing our market with many desira ble manufactured goods. Raw materials come from both the ASEAN and ANZUS countries. From China, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong come textiles, manufac tured goods, shoes, and other general con sumer goods. The South China Sea potentially has great oil reserves, and In donesia and other countries have oil to sell.

Our trade in the Pacific Basin ap proaches $2OO billion annually and is still growing rapidly. Trade with Japan re cently surpassed that with all the Euro pean countries combined. It includes $1.2 billion in semiconductors, and millions of dollars of microchips, ball bearings, def ence parts, and hundreds of other imports and exports.

Military Security for Ourselves and Our Allies: As Admiral James A Lyons, Jr., the Commander-in-Chief of the US Pa cific Fleet, recently commented, . . the Soviet Pacific Fleet has increased from 200 ships in 1960 to over 500 today.” With 1,000 land-based maritime bombers, ma jor bases on their own coasts and in Viet nam, and a growing appetite for blue-water naval exercises, the Soviets now pose the principal military threat to Western inter ests in the region.

Other potential conflicts exist within the Pacific Basin. These have dangerous

implications for Western interests. One of the most dangerous nations is North Ko rea, poised for an attack on South Korea.

The North Koreans currently have more than 885,000 men and women in uniform, giving them the world’s sixth largest armed force.

As one observer recently commented, “North Korea is not a country in the tra ditional sense. It is one armed camp from the DMZ to the Yalu River.”

Another aggressor state is the People’s Republic of Vietnam, which threatens Thailand and Malaysia with the third largest standing army in the world.

Additionally, many key countries face internal security problems, including the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Korea.

As Secretary of State George Shultz re cently stated, the Pacific is “... one of the most heavily armed regions in the world, and Asian peace is still marred by contin uing conflicts.”

Freedom of the High Seas for Peaceful Navigation, Military Passage, and Eco nomic Development: This US goal is par ticularly critical in the Pacific Basin with its huge ocean space, numerous archipe lagic countries, and critical SLOCs be tween Western allies.

Parts of the aborted Law of the Sea Treaty, retooled to meet the needs of a po tential new alliance system, could be adapted as the start of a new compact for the region. In particular, issues could be resolved regarding passage through key straits, oil and mineral development on the seabed beyond national jurisdiction, the size of territorial seas and exclusive eco nomic zones, and other potential areas of dispute.

The Pursuit of Open Democratic Political Systems and Capitalistic Eco nomic Markets: Demographic experts predict that by 1990 62 per cent of the world’s population will live on the Pacific rim, an area that includes the Pacific Basin to the north and all the South American Pacific coastline.

While not of immediate benefit to the United States, improvements in the cli mate of freedom and democracy are in the best interests of our country in the long term. The sponsorship of such develop ments is difficult, since many of the coun tries simply do not have the sort of democratic systems that could serve as the root of such systemic changes. Nonethe less, the omens are favourable in many countries in the region, particularly in light of the successful changes in the Philip pines and the potential changes in South Korea.

Clearly, the US ability to influence events in the Pacific will depend on the compatibility of the region’s political and economic systems with our own.

Minimise Soviet Influence in the Re gion: Obviously, the Soviets have a major interest in the region, given their extended Pacific coastline and growing military

forces in the basin. The Soviet backing of aggressive regimes at the center of hard core Marxist spheres of influence (Viet nam and North Korea come to mind) will impede or negate US progress toward its other objectives.

In order for the US to move events in a favourable direction, the Soviets’ ability to control the timeline in the region must be blocked. In addition to the newly ne gotiated treaty with Vanuatu, the Soviets are moving in new directions with China, various Southeast Asian countries, and even the ANZUS countries. As an ob server commented recently, “Mikhail S Gorbachev has served notice that he in tends for the Soviet Union to become a Pa cific power in the fullest sense of the term.”