Coffee Report

[?]e New Guinea Coffee Report

'’rom our Canberra Correspondent „ survey of the Papua-New Guinea ee industry just completed by the tralian Bureau of Agricultural nomics will not cause growers to i handsprings among their young s—which is all right, because »t growers don’t feel like doing these days, anyhow. -IE report contains some valuable information and also confirms ly things growers learned for nselves. For instance, the Bureau no quick fortunes from coffee— at the best, only a reasonable re i for years of work, md at the worst, it warns of the ils of an industry in which pro tion already outruns demand, hi the world outlook, the Bureau Is: “Exportable output is still atly in excess of current demand, less drastic action is taken to re el production, the gap will be even ater in future.”

"he report is based on surveys de by the Government last year, owing representations by NG wers.

Native Growers n the report, the Bureau attributes expansion in native-grown coffee the encouragement of the Admin ation, and points out that Admin ation policy is now to discourage ive promotion of coffee planting il the market position is clarified, s growers also know this very well, 1 have complained about it (PIM, ril, p. 22). rhe Bureau’s information on who drinking what kind of coffee, and 0 isn’t, will hold most interest for >wers. For instance: People are drinking their coffee aker, partly because “instant” coffee ivides up to 30 per cent, more cups >m a pound of green beans than Hind coffee.

In 1949, the average number of ps from a pound of raw coffee was , but ten years later this had in ;ased to 64.

With world production increasing

lidly, demand appears to be reach -1 saturation point in North nerica and Western Europe, and /eral factors are delaying increased age in other potential markets, such Eastern Europe and Asia. (Over)

The Territory’s best prospects lie n Australia, the Bureau says.

Up to the present almost the total mtput from P-NG, small by world tandards,. has been placed in Aus ralia.

The International Coffee Agree aent regulates shipments to estab ished markets, so that competition or new markets will become more ntense as world surpluses accumu ate.

Australian coffee consumption has isen from .6 lb a head before the var to 2.2 lb in 1960, and Australia s now using around 10.000 tons of offee a year.

The Bureau estimates that if con umption rose to 2.5 lb a head, we vould need 12,600 tons by 1965 and 4,000 tons by 1970.

Migrant Influence

The Bureau says that the influence >f European migrants on coffee Irinking can be exaggerated, but sug gests that they could be responsible or about half the difference in coffee mports.

Other factors tending to increase offee drinking are TV viewing and he great increase in the number of ispresso bars and cafes.

The Bureau reaches the conclusion hat the Territory could dispose of nost of its crop on the Australian narket if only it could supplant East Africa as a main source of supply.

This competitive situation might

not arise if, because of special bean characteristics, a significant propertion of output can attract a premium and compete directly with higher quality coffee from other than East African sources.

The industry will have to determine whether such an approach is practicable.

If it is not confident that it can do so it will soon have to establish overseas markets for part of its output.

The Bureau says that because native output will be greater than that from plantations, it will play a big part in determining the reputation of Territory coffee.

Territory production of dry coffee

beans rose from 1,000 tons in 1958- 59 to 2,000 tons in 1960, and is csti mated to reach 7,000 tons by 1965, and at least 12,000 tons by 1970.

Estimated crop for 1961 is 3,000 tons.

A survey of existing plantations showed that 25 out of 30 had a pos itive return on their capital. Eight were returning more than 20 per cent. and 17 more than 10 per cent, The Bureau prepared a budget for establishing a 100-acre plantation in

the Highlands.

It estimated establishment costs at £.55,700 over six years, and sug gested that when the plantation reached full production it would re turn from 10 to 15 per cent, on capital. (See also "Pacific Report" section)