Clinton’s new agenda
p. 27 · Read in the full issue
ONE THING is certain about the new Clinton administration foreign policy is off the hit parade.
Back when there was a Cold War (was it just three years ago?) and Washington used to be the capital of the Free World, international
politics was this city’s prime cur
rency.
But the fact that George Bush became known as the “foreign policy President” was a key reason why he lost the election.
President Bill Clinton is going to spend his first year focussing on reviving the American economy and other aspects of domestic policy that voters believe Bush neglected.
That means the islands states of the South West Pacific will attract even less attention.
“Foreign policy was not even talked about in the election.
The South Pacific is regarded as a sideshow,” observed a South Pacific official in Washington.
But the new administration poses no threat to the region. Its catchery in foreign policy has been “continuity”.
“There will be no fundamental changes,” said Dick Baker, with the Hawaii-based East-West Center. “Just don’t expect
policy initiatives.”
A South Pacific official agreed: “It remains in their basic strategic interest to keep the sea lanes open and to deny the region to others although of course no one really wants to move into there anymore.”
There will be, however, an automatic and comprehensive review of all State Department policies. And that provides several opportunities for President Clinton and his new foreign policy team to re-orient US policy.
For instance, they will be more likely to sign the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone treaty.
The US already complies with the treaty’s principles, Clinton supports a Comprehensive Test Ban and the end of the Cold War has diminished the resonance of many opponents.
“It won’t be a front-burner but there is no political cost,” said Jim Baker.
But they are unlikely to rush to repair the security alliance with New Zealand, according to Dick Baker.
“For a couple of reasons. First, I’m not sure what they could do anyway. And they will want to reaffirm the principle (of no-confirm-no-deny regarding nuclear weapons).
“Second, if the Clinton administration comes in with any negative baggage in foreign affairs it is that Democrats have to fight perceptions of being too soft,” he said.
Thus, the new White House is unlikely to “kiss and make up” with New Zealand’s Beehive because it won’t want to incur any political cost.
New Zealand is hoping, however, a brand new team at State Department headquarters at Foggy Bottom will replace many of the personalities involved in the original dispute with New Zealand.
That could provide the best chance in years to improve defence relations even if it means meagre efforts to establish some form of joint training and military exchanges. But it remains just a chance.
Regional officials also speculated the Joint Commercial
Commission initiative under for mer President Bush, designed to promote increased American in vestment and business in the South Pacific, could be ditched.
“I don’t think Clinton will be interested in pursuing this. There was nothing in it anyway. It was a hollow shell all along,” said a South Pacific official.
But the new regime may be more inclined to sign the Law of the Sea Convention and formally accept the expanded territorial boundaries coveted by island nations although there would still probably have to be some resolution of US opposition to provisions for deep seabed min
ing.
There is at least one other key
indicator of how the Clinton regime will treat the Pacific islands.
Who will President Clinton appoint as Assistant Secretary For Territorial and International Affairs in the Interior Department, a position responsible for Pacific territories?
It covers Guam, American Samoa, Palau, the Northern Marianas and the Compact Nations, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia, both of which are members of the South Pacific Forum.
Whoever occupies the job is at the coal-face of US-Pacific policy-making and is appointed by the President.
A South Pacific official complained that during the Reagan/ Bush years,the job was usually given to a minority, i.e. a woman or an ethnic minority, to boost the administration’s appearance of being an equal opportunity employer, “It has been tokenistic,” the official said. “Competence was not” the main criterion.
But Pacific leaders have at least one powerful and emphatic ally close to the White House. Hawaii Governor Waihee is good friends with Clinton and was among his early backers in the presidential race. They forged strong ties when Clinton was Araknsas Governor, Governor Waihee, whether he joins the Clinton administra tion or remains in Hawaii, will be a vital advocate for the Pacific and will become a powerful channel through which the island states can get to the White House.
At the time of writing there was also some speculation about whether former congressman Stephen Solarz, a proven friend of the region, might also be given a key post in the administration.
Some regional officials also see exciting opportunities for the Pacific via the new Vice President, A 1 Gore. He is an ardent environmentalist who could be attracted to the increasingly prominent green agenda of the South Pacific.
But in the meantime, the Pacific has to get used to the new agenda in Washington.