Incomes drop in Islands—

but populations up

Most Pacific Island nations’ income dropped in the 1984- 1985 period, but population growth rates remained high.

These trends are shown in economic and social “report cards” just released by two Washington-based institutions.

Only three jurisdictions showed an increase in per capita gross national product (GNP): American Samoa, French Polynesia and, by only US $lO, Papua-New Guinea.

Five showed de creases between 1984 and 1985: Fiji, Guam, New Caledo nia, the Solomons and Western Samoa, according to the annual World Bank Atlas.

A glance at the GNP table shows a one-to-fifteen range in per capita averages, from US $5lO in the Solomons to US $7,840 in French Polynesia.

One of the most startling trends reported was the fact that, for the first time, the per capita GNP in French Polynesia (US $7840) rose above that of New Zealand (US $7310.) The French Polynesian total was up US $2lO over the previous year while that of New Zealand down by US $430. Gross na tional product, as measured by the World Bank, is the sum of the economic subsidies from

other places; Wellington gets no help along these lines and Tahi ti gets lots.

Further, as in earlier years, the heavily subsidised French and American colonies gener ally reported much higher GNPs than the islands that once had been under British flags.

Social indicators data was also released on the Pacific showing wide ranges in infant mortality rates and in the per centage of school-age children in school.

The number of babies dying before their first birthday per 1000 live births varied from a low of 11 in New Caledonia to a high 91 in Papua New Guinea. New Caledonia’s in fant mortality rate is close to that of the United States (10.5) and surprisingly, below that of New Zealand (12.5). All island nations have infant mortality rates below the average of the less developed world 92 deaths per 1000 live births but PNG comes very close to that measure. (Data on this subject was collected by the Population Reference Bureau.) Another measure of how well a government treats its children can be seen in the school attendance statistics. The range was similar to that of the other

scales, with PNG low with 36% of school-age children in school, and next up the ladder was the Solomons with 46%.

On top was New Caledonia with a seemingly impossible 101%. (This relates to a minor defect in the measuring system the World Bank counts all kids in primary and secondary schools, even those of 5 or 18 years of age, and then com pares that total to the 6-17 year-old population as reported by the census.) An anomoly stands out when one compares the GNP and the children’s data for the two French territories. While New Caledonia has an average GNP about US $2OOO less than French Polynesia’s, its infant mortality rate is half that of Tahiti and its school attendance ratio is much higher. Are New Caledonia’s administrators more effective or more pro child than those of the other French territory? Are children better cared for in a land of political turmoil than in one of relative tranquility? Or is it much easier to deliver good social services in a reasonably compact place, like New Cale donia, than it is in a far-flung set of islands? The last explanation appears to be more plausible

but the statistics themselves offer no clues.

The population Reference Bureau also reports on death rates for the adult population (which ranged from a low of 5 per 1000 residents in Fiji to a high of 14 in PNG) and the number of years that it will take to double a territory’s total population.

Nations with low birth rates, such as the U.S. and N.Z., will take more than 90 years to double their populations, while the projected years to doubling for the islands are in the 19-35 year range. The Solomons and Vanuatu will double in popula tion in 19 years, Western Samoa in 23, PNG in 26, French Polynesia in 27, Fiji in 29, and New Caledonia (with its substantial European popu lation) in 35 years. These esti mates are based on the demog raphers’ assumptions that birth and death rates will continue at current levels and that the size of the population will not be affected by international migra tion. While these assumptions clearly are unlikely, the year-to doubling estimates do provide a useful, if rough, measure of the population pressures in the is land nations. From David S.

North in Washington.