An independent decision

Pim Opinion

Vanuatu’s fishing agreement with the Soviet Union was inevitable. In the absence of better offers for access to the nation’s very valuable resource, it makes common commercial sense to conclude a deal with the highest or only bidder. That there are other concerns, from a Port Vila perspective, is hardly relevant.

As Michael Somare says, (page 20) it’s all about survival. And few would argue that survival of the South Pacific ministates is not of vital importance.

The people of those countries chose independence. It was not forced on them. And as independent states they should be free to deal with whomsoever they wish. That much is clear.

Less clear is the validity of objections raised by their near neighbours who, for varying reasons, claim an interest in these proceedings. Those reasons themselves may hold some keys to the portals of policy-making in the South Pacific. Australia’s foreign minister Mr Bill Hayden signalled Australia’s “concerns” at a Soviet presence when he toured the region last year (July PIM p 22). By the time the Forum was meeting in August, however, his position appeared to have softened. Then, when talks between Vanuatu and the Soviets were on the verge of completion, Australia was concerned again. This is doubtless unconnected with Australia’s difficulties in the US over its agricultural exports.

New Zealand, too, was originally worried at least until Fr Uni talked with prime minister Lange at the Forum after which the New Zealand leader declared himself much more relaxed at the prospects of a Soviet presence. He should know. New Zealand has had a fishing agreement with the Soviet Union for some years.

The New Zealand position, too, would be in no way linked to its anxiety to show the US that the ANZUS breakdown was not intended to end a friendship.

The US position is more straightforward. It doesn’t want the Soviets fishing in an American lake.

But to paint the US as the villain of the piece is unfair And Mr Somare’s assertion that the US “hasn’t done a damn thing” for the ministates strains credibility. That the

US hasn’t done enough would be a more acceptable claim. But The Chief’s remark may have been made more in frustration than conviction. A future Somare-led government would very likely support Vanuatu’s right to deal with the Soviets while keeping them at arm’s length itself. As he said, it’s a question of survival.

Vanuatu, with its tough banking secrecy laws, its flag of convenience shipping register, its religious convic tions, its commitment to free enterprise investment and its vigorous democratic institutions is hardly ripe for a communist conversion. Why, then, should some of its neighbours be worried?

They are worried because they fear that any upsurge of superpower competition in the region may generate an unpredictable fallout. And they may well have a case.

At the moment, however, that case is sometimes overstated. The Soviets fished in Kiribati waters for a year with no political side effects. They adhered to the terms of their agreement and there is no reason to believe that they may behave differently in Vanuatu. The agreement has to be renewed after a year while the US multilateral agreement is likely to be of longer duration. There are enough safeguards.

The Soviet Union has possibly the world’s largest fishing fleet though judging by recorded catches they may well be the world’s least efficient and, if they are prepared to pay, there seems no reason for countries in dire need of revenue to exclude them.

The danger is that the US Congress and the current president may not take that pragmatic view and decide that island nations who deal with the Soviets are somehow anti-American in that they allow a US rival access in return for a measly couple of million dollars.

Washington appears to find it difficult to come to terms with the very smallness of the island economies. More used to talking in billions and now trillions, the global policy makers have previously preferred to delegate such minor details. That is changing.

And if the Vanuatu agreement hastens that change it will have done the whole region and, possibly, the US a large favour.