Realignment of Fiji

party forces is on

Two questions fascinate politi cal observers in Fiji these days.

First, what is left for the Na tional Federation Party and, in particular, its leader, Siddiq Koya? and, second, can the newly-risen Fiji Labour Party now truly challenge the long established Alliance Party for control of the government of Fiji?

On the face of it, in the wake of what was, for his party, and even more for him personally, a disastrous by-election earlier this year in Ba-Tavua, Koya appears to be a spent political force. His party is now even more divided than it was when he reluctantly relinquished leadership in 1977. Its par liamentary numbers have lately been reduced from 24 to 18, and the dog-fights within its ranks are painfully public.

Concurrently, the Labour Party, still predominantly In dian, but making strenuous efforts to attract wide support in every racial group, has shown itself to be a notable and rising force, capable by many counts not only of supplanting the NFP, but even of challenging Ratu Mara’s Alliance in a na tion-wide poll.

The result in Ba-Tavua may, but only may, be an indication of the Labour Party’s potential.

The Alliance fielded Uday Singh, member of a well known sugar-growing family, and won with 7885 votes. But

the Labour Party, with its lead er, unionist Mahendra Chaud hary, as candidate, polled a very close 7644 votes, leaving the NFP wallowing in its wake with 5003.

The ruling Alliance Party thus increased its parliamentary majority by one to 29. The National Federation Party, which had 24 seats after the 1982 elections has now seen its numbers dwindle to 18, with two seats lost in by-elections, and four sitting members, in cluding deputy leader, Irene Jai Narayan, resigning and styling themselves independent, The recent December by elections were for the Lau- Rotuma Fijian communal seat, and the national seat for the Ba-Tavua Indian constituency.

The first of these is a blue ribbon Alliance seat which had become vacant after the accidental death last year of the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Jonati Mavoa. Mr Filipe Bole, a former diplomat and civil ser vant won handsomely, defeat ing his only opponent, Sakeasi Butadroka, of the Fijian Na tionalist Party, by 5329 votes to 266. Butadroka lost his deposit.

But, the story was quite diffe rent in the other contest. The National Federation Party, which had won in the general election by a 5500-vote major ity, when it fielded former Alliance cabinet minister Sir

Vijay R.Singh, this time got what can only be called a bloody nose.

Ironically the NFP had once again put up an ex-Alliance cabinet minister, Mr James Shankar Singh, as its candidate.

The winning Alliance candidate is his younger brother. (Uday Singh had also con tested and lost the seat against Sir Vijay in 1982.) Most commentators in Fiji believe the result would have been much more disastrous for the NFP had they fielded any one but James Shankar Singh, and thus the conclusion is that the Labour Party vote may be seen as something of a mini mum - which is probably mak ing the Alliance’s back-room men think on overtime as well.

The popular view now is that the NFP, and Sid Koya, are spent forces in Fiji politics and that if Mr Koya continues in the leadership, then the NFP will continue to decline into political oblivion.

Taking into account all the mistakes and political and tacti cal blunders Mr Koya is seen to

have made last year, most pun dits had expected him to volun tarily resign. But that is not his style.

As well as losing his deputy leader, Mrs Narayan, he has seen three others of his leading parliamentarians go to the cross benches; Dr Satendra Nandan, Mr Himmat Lodhia and Mr Arthur Jennings. But, so far, despite the omens and the open talk, Mr Koya has stub bornly soldiered on.

The big test is due next year when general elections are due to be held. Speculation has it that unless some sort of miracle occurs the NFP will wind up the minority party in the parlia ment, with the Labour Party forming the official opposition at very least.

Privately, and even publicly, politicians in Fiji are saying the NFP is a write-off.

Compounding this situation, both the Alliance and the Labour Party are actively en gaged in luring disenchanted NFP supporters and members of parliament into their folds.

Ratu Mara has been talking with rich and influential Gujerati businessmen who are known NFP supporters. Not long ago he held a specially-arranged dinner party to continue this campaign.

Labour Party officials have also been meeting former NFP city councillors and par liamentarians who now call themselves independent in a bid to woo them. The Labour leadership has been reluctant, until recently, to make any overtures to NFP members be cause it has wished to keep its clear image and not become over-burdened with ex-NFP fi gures. However, it has had to modify its stand, or lose the opportunity to the Alliance.

But what is Sid Koya’s future as a political leader? In March last year, in a by-election, when his own choice of candidate, Dr Balwant Singh Rakha, was de feated by a rebel NFP candi date, Mr Davendra Singh, by a mere 13 votes Mr Koya refused to honor a promise to “resign instantly - instantly,” if his candidate lost. But he made no such promise over the Ba- Tavua by-election, and in the very heady environment of In dian politics in Fiji that is seen as significant. From Our Suva Correspondent.

Uday Singh ... won for the Alliance.

Mahendra Chaudhary ... left NFP wallowing.