The giants of the Pacific Rim eye

the pygmies of the Centre

Professor RON CROCOMBE* discusses the present state and likely future development of super-power influences on Pacific Islands countries. He says that, to draw maximum advantage for themselves from such influences, Islands countries need to start doing some intensive homework on the subject.

The world’s largest super powers are on the Pacific Rim.

But the world’s smallest micro powers are the Pacific Islands nations. The imbalance is ex treme, but that does not mean that the situation is hopeless in fact, relative to size, the Pacific Islands nations have better options than most. But it does necessitate being realistic about what is and what is not achievable.

In population numbers there are about 2000 million in countries on the Pacific Rim, as against only five million Pacific Islanders. Pacific Islanders are outnumbered 400 to one.

Wealth shows a similar dis proportion. In education the USA, Japan and Australia have about 10 times the tertiary educated manpower per 1000 of population that the Pacific Islands have, and the Islands are not catching up. Military power shows an even worse imbalance. Only three Pacific Islands countries have military forces, and those are very small.

For most of this century, the >uper-power in relation to the Pacific was the United King dom, but it is now finished so far is the Pacific is concerned. For

he 1980 s the super-power in

he Pacific is the USA, though lot necessarily for much longer. would expect the USA’s lower in relation to the Pacific slands to increase for a few and then go into a perma tent decline.

The USA’s interest in the has always been mainly nilitary. Hawaii was taken by he USA in a coup organised by American business interests in 894, followed by US annex

ation in 1898, and has since been developed as the biggest US military base off the main land.

Also in 1898 the USA took Guam by military action and set up an enormous military base there it was from there that much of the bombing of Vietnam was done.

In 1 899 the USA took Ameri can Samoa and ran that as a naval base for more than 50 years.

Then at the end of World War II the USA look the Marianas, Caroline and Marshall Islands by military action from Japan and is likely to maintain the dominant influence there for a long time.

The USA has always preached anti-colonialism, while absorbing its colonies rather than freeing them. Of the English-speaking colonial powers in the Pacific, the USA has been the most imperialist in terms of authoritarian govern ment, force-feeding of Ameri can values and culture, and protection from non-American influences. The USA is the only colonial power to have run most of its Pacific colonies, most of the lime, by direct military rule.

The amount of money to be made by the USA in the Pacific Islands is of very minor significance, but having effective control over the kinds of governments and economies in the Pacific Islands is of considerable significance to US interests throughout the Pacific Rim.

It is cheaper, easier and more acceptable to the USA to wield much of her influence over the Pacific Islands indirectly (though she is building tremen dous direct control of Pacific media). It’s the modern equivalent of what the British colonial system called ‘indirect rule’.

That role in the Pacific is subcontracted in part to satellite states which have in the last decade or so moved into the US orbit and away from the UK Australia and New Zealand in particular. It suits Australia’s and New Zealand s interests to play that mediator role, though New Zealand is becoming increasingly a satellite of Australia, rather than an equal pa l!" er r , The formal military alliance m mg the USA, Australia and AN7IIS t a f?k u l5 cal ' ed ANZUS, but the basis for that linkage is very much deeper in cultural, economic and politica re alions. ut that is a 1970 s emphasis ralher than a 1980 s one. The biggest changes for the Pacific Islands in the 1980 s and 1990 s will come from the north: first and most strongly from Japan.

Influence from the USSR is likely to increase significantly, but to be overshadowed in the Pacific Islands by China But China’s major influence in the area may not begin for another generation.

Japan was the colonial power over Micronesia from 1914 to 1944. Her administration was efficient but ruthless, the economy boomed, but so many Japanese settlers were brought in that they soon outnumbered the Micronesians. Japan's past record as a colonial power in the Pacific Islands was not good, Her future record as a neocolonial power is not likely to be any better.

But the day of single superpowers is now over. Regionalism is becoming a major basis for the mobilising of power.

Japan initiated the concept of a Pacific Basin Community, and Japan is likely to be the major beneficiary from it. But it is probably an inevitable next

stage in Pacific politics. It aims to pull together what they call the market economies, or the capitalist economies, or what ever one wants to call them, of the Pacific Rim: Japan and the USA, South Korea, the ASEAN nations (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand), Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands nations.

In an informal sense it is already a reality, and formalis ing it will only give recognition to a grouping that is in many ways already functional. The exact form it will take still has to be worked out presumably it will start with a softening-up process through the media, edu cational and cultural exchanges and some liberalising of trade, and of course political leverage and a military back-up which won’t gel much publicity but which will be very influential.

I can imagine Pacific Islands university students opposing all this in principle, but have no doubt that when it is converted into trips, conferences, scholar ships, exchange schemes and money, jobs in international organisations arising from it, etc, that the Pacific’s university students will be the most en thusiastic and most over represented participants from this part of the world.

Now let’s turn to the USSR, because its Pacific coast is becoming more significant and it is an enormous military power. Obviously it would like to be the major source of influence in the Pacific Islands, but the USA is already firmly in control.

I lend to assume that if there is a third world war, the USA and the USSR will destroy or neutralise each other as world powers, in which case Japan will become the Pacific super-power

Ron Crocombe is Director, nstitute of Pacific Studies, Jniversity of the South Pacific.