Tight Belts Will Remain

The Fashion In W. Samoa

From FELISF VA 'A in Apia

After reading the new Finance Minister’s statement on the 1976 supplementary estimates in parlia ment one cannot help thinking that the government is well aware of the country’s present financial situation and what the future is likely to be. The problems are delineated and the cures suggested. But then one also thinks that similar governments in the past presented a similar picture. And, retrospectively, it would appear that the country’s financial state has deteriorated and not ameliorated.

This is the crux of the whole question.

It is not that Vaovasamanaia Filipo’s statement is filled to the brim with utopian ideas or empty platitudes. Far from it. Vaovasa does manage to give a very clear, concise and informative picture of the coun try’s finances. Though his emphasis on rural development is not new (it has always been the cornerstone of Western Samoa's five-year develop ment plans) his stress on the inten sification of industrialisation seems to be a more distinct development in economic policy not that in dustrialisation had not been thought of by past governments. It is merely that he emphasises it more and gives it a more definite place.

As expected, Vaovasa painted a grim picture of the agricultural export situation. These exports remain far below their potential level. Taking only the last three years into account, 13.400 tons of copra, worth WSS4.6 million, were exported in 1974. Inter national prices then were good. The next year, more copra was exported, 19.400 tons, but its worth was only WSS2.6 million, due to a drop in prices. There has been no improve ment in copra exports during the first five months of this year. A total of 3300 tons (W 55367,000) was exported compared with 9400 tons (WSSI.IB million) for the same period in 1975.

As for cocoa, 1460 tons (WSSI.IB million) were exported in 1975, the minister said. This does not compare well with the 1820 tons (WSSI.B7 million) exported in 1974. During the

first five months of this year, only 118 tons of cocoa ($1 10,000) were exported, compared with 600 tons (W 55582,000) for the same period in 1975.

Just as bad as copra and cocoa is the banana situation. Only 19,000 cases of bananas worth W 5554,000 were exported in 1975 compared with 52,000 cases (WS$ 127,000) in 1974.

During the first five months of this year, only 7300 cases of bananas (W 5525,000) were exported.

Only 19,000 cases of taro (W 5594,000) were exported in 1975 compared with 90,700 cases (WS$3I8,000) in 1974. But there are encouraging signs, the minister said; in the first five months of this year, 19,400 cases (WS$I0I,000) were exported, compared with 4000 cases (WS$ 15,000) for the same period last year.

Timber exports are perhaps even more depressing. Timber exports in 1975 were worth WS$ 172,000 compared with WSSI.24 million in 1974.

Against the exports are the im ports, the cif value of which for 1975 was W 5522.52 million compared with W 5517.45 for 1974. For the first five months of this year the figure is W 559.45 million compared with WSS9.6I million for the same period last year. As can be seen, the trade balance is very lopsided indeed and a large part of the imbalance is due to government imports (perhaps at least 40 per cent of the imports) for capital development purposes. Thanks large ly to invisible earnings, the balance of payments deficit is not desperate. The country’s overseas reserves are also helping to stabilise the imbalance, Overseas reserves during 1975, in fact, rose by W 55666,000 to W 555.66 million.

The new government’s policy to

“increase . . . manufacturing in

dustrial facilities” is a realistic one.

Vaovasa was only stating the obvious when he said that these would enable Western Samoa to (1) process its agricultural products to a greater ex

tent, thus adding value to its exports (2) manufacture import substitute products and (3) process imported raw materials for re-export. “In creased industrial development thus provides a reasonably rapid means of earning and saving foreign exchange and of providing employment,’’ he said.

Industrialisation is a rapid means all right but by the look of things it appears unlikely that the industrial duty-free zone will be in operation three years from now. A lot of work still has to be done, according to a top government source. Applications Irom overseas companies are being screened in a rather overcautious manner. Those companies or organisations already approved are bickering over the question of loca tion in the zone.

Thus, industrialisation, even on a moderate scale, is still in the distant future as far as Western Samoa is concerned. And this means that the country will still continue to suffer in definitely from the adverse conse quences of an ailing agricultural in dustry. This also means that an im provement in the people’s standard of living is not in the immediate fiture.

In spite of government rhetoric about better times ahead, the fact remains the future is bleak for most Samoans especially with the added problem of a rapidly increasing pop ulation. Under these circumstances, government’s best bet is to continue to push with its development projects in industry, agriculture and, of course, infrastructure. In the private sector, it should adopt conservative policies all around and this means, socially, economically and politically for the life of a nation is an organic whole.

Any radical policies would bring about an imbalance which gives rise to revolutions. Can Tupuola do this?

He is capable of doing it if he can check his ambition for power. For ambition breeds excesses.

The government’s approach to the country's economic problems is quite sound. However, one wonders why the necessity for a large expenditure of money on the proposed Western Sa moan High Commission in Wellington and Consulate in Auckland. In such times of financial crisis, it seems a paradox that the government should see fit to engage in an expensive enterprise of questionable value. The money might be better spent on a sports stadium for Western Samoa’s youth.