Heads they win, tails you lose
p. 15 · Read in the full issue
DO YOUR eyes glaze over as the latest hysterical news story on the impenetrably complex GATT negotiations comes over the radio. You are certainly not alone. I would guess there are probably only one or two per cent of people who actually understand the gobbledygook spoken in the name of GATT (the General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade).
But if you are like me you may also have been wondering whether now is the time to start worrying about GATT. For the island nations the answer may be yes because, however the issue resolves itself, trading conditions for them are going to get tougher.
The hysteria over the French decision not to back the historic compromise reached between the United States and Europe in November on agricutural subsidies gives the impression we may be facing “the end of civilisation as we know it”. With the US decision to retaliate with punitive tariffs, the doomsday predictions of an escalating world
trade war which would plunge the globe into a massive
depression is looking more possible.
Originally GATT was intended as a means of getting international trade, the lifeblood of all 20th century economies, onto a fairer footing; to reduce tariff barriers which block entry to many goods particularly those made in the third world and to reduce government subsidies to industries which give inefficient producers an unfair advantage over their counterparts in non-subsidising countries.
If concluded successfully the latest round of negotiations, known as the Uruguay round would, roughly speaking, lead to a worldwide reduction of tariffs of one third a big achievement.
In all there have been 14 different sets of negotiations involved in the Uruguay round on everything from tropical products through to financial services and intellectual property. The sticking point has been the fact that for any of the new regimes to come into operation there must be international agreement on all 14 areas, all of which are highly technical. The French government, perhaps more than others, has found some measures extremely unpalatable to those of its constituents whose jobs depend on the tariffs under threat.
Now, six years into the Uruguay round, agriculture is the only sticking point. Until the November agreement between Europe and the United States the talks had looked so badly stalled that it was feared they may fail. France’s decision to hold out on the hard fought deal has been greeted with outrage.
So, was the United State’s retaliation the beginning of the trade war? The answer is probably no. Sure, France looks pretty dug-in but after the March general election a solution may be easier to find.
Economists estimate success with the GATT negotiations will lead to a $2OO-billion dollar increase in the value of world trade.
Despite its farmers’ opposition to the agricultural provisions France cannot afford to miss out on the benefits in other areas.
What is needed now is a face saving device. And that is just what is being prepared. Work on the main body of the GATT agreement is now under way again and it is hoped the focus on this and its benefits will give time for a compromise on agriculture to emerge in a less politically charged atmosphere.
It’s a way out that the embattled French government has not
rejected.
For the Pacific islands, either outcome from the GATT negotiations presents problems. While obviously an international trade war would be a disaster for the islands, the tariff reductions offered by a successful conclusion to the agreement are in fact
a disadvantage for island exporters.
Why? Because at the moment the island nations have very advantageous special agreements with all the big
markets (US and Europe for instance)
which give almost tariff-free access.
Therefore, any reduction in tariffs will
only help their competitors.
In textiles the situation is even worse. Much of the Malaysian invest ment in Fiji for instance is because Malaysia has filled its quota in some of the crucial western markets. Once those quotas meet their GATT induced end it is very likely cheaper costs at home will mean a flight of
capital.
The good news is that tariff and quota reductions will not take place overnight. If the problems with the GATT negotiations are solved the new agreement will come into effect on January 1, 1994, with tariff reductions
taking place in phases over a number of years.
In textiles the multi-fibre agreement gives a 10-year phase-in period. That gives the islands just one decade to become internationally competitive or find another business.
PEOPLE from Fiji and Tonga have topped the list of those deported from Australia for overstaying their visas. Ihe latest figures from the Immigration Department, which cover the financial year 1991-92, show that 10.8 per cent of all deportees came from Fiji and a further 9.9 per cent from Tonga. Only Britain rivalled those rates, with 10.7 per cent.
For island communities the immigration crackdown, which began two years ago, is having serious consequences particularly for children. Kids born to illegal immigrants after August 1986 are not eligible to attend school.
According to Tongan community worker Losenna Ma’ake, up to 50 or 60 per cent of the members of the Sydney Tongan community are illegal immigrants and significant numbers have children in the affected age group. V\ hile many kids are beating the system by enrolling in Catholic schools, Ma’ake says there are still quite a few children getting no education.
Community workers put islanders' high deportation rates down to a belief that deportation makes no difference to an individual s ability to return later to visit relatives.
Many people believe once someone has been marked as illegal he goes on a black-list of those not to be given visas again.
The rules say an illegal who goes home under his own steam is eligible to return immediately while a deportee is banned for five years. In practice it is likely to be hard for any individual with a record of illegality to obtain a visitors visa in the future.
A spokesman for the Immigration Department admits officials would be very vigorous in assessing applications, often looking for more than just a return ticket as proof that an applicant was not likely to overstay.
In some cases only a convincing job and close family to return to will be enough.
The crackdown has now reduced the number of Fijian and Tongan over-stayers by one third and is likely to continue.
Immigration officials say, if anything, the compliance effort is now stronger than when the crackdown began in 1990.
As a next step the government is considering introducing legislation which would require all employers to check job seekers’ immigration status before taking them on.