Getting bigger by

The United Nations

Getting bigger by the millions

By Ian Williams

Increasingly,

United Nations agencies are issuing annual reports on the

state of (he world as seen through particular fields of vision and work. Even though one sometimes suspects that the motives include the greater glory of the agencies and their directors, there is no doubt that the figures and the compari sons, no matter how odious, are often extremely useful.

Unfortunately many Pacific nations are too small to warrant the separate attention of the statisticians. This is perhaps more surprising lor the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), since they should presumably hold up small populations as an example to the rest of the world.

However, UNFPA looks at growth rales rather than crude size, and on that count the Pacific has problems, in the

next 35 years, they anticipate Papua

New Guinea's population rising at 2.3 per cent a year, from 3.9 million to 7.3 million, and Melanesia’s (New Cale donia, Solomons and Vanuatu; rising at 2.2 per cent a year from 5.3 million to 9.7 million. Micronesia and Polynesia are more restrained, with rises from 0.4 to 0.6 million 1.5 per cent annual growth) and 0.6 to 0.8 million (1.3 per cent annual growth). By comparison, China at 1.4 per cent annual growth rate is doing very well and even then will have 1500 million people in 2025.

A UNFPA spokesperson apologised for the lack of coverage of the area, but pointed out that a recent mission had discovered that the Marshalls had the highest growth rate in the world, at 4.2 per cent and the Solomon Islands had 3.5 per cent. The Marshalls population is expected at current rales lo double within 15 years, because of its tradition ally large families and a high rate of teenage pregnancies.

But even in others with smaller growth rates, “There’s been a lot of outmigration to Australia and New Zealand from many of these countries, and now that has been halted the population pressures will be much greater”, the UNFPA spokeswoman cautioned. UNFPA had funded censuses in 14 South Pacific countries, to help governments assess the scale of' the problem. “So far our programme has been very small.

Originallky there was extreme oppo sition from some governments, but gen

erally the churches have assisted, and they and other non governmental organ isations and community groups have done some very good work”, she said. In the Marshalls, the number of people

using family planning services trebled

from 10 to 30 per cent of the fertile age population between 1988 and 1989.

The organisation will be paying more attention to the islands in future and if the Marshalls’ productivity spreads, they will have a lot of work to do.

Once children have been born, they fall into the territory of UNICEF, the United Nations Children’s Fund whose report takes as a key indicator the Under Five Mortality Rate (USMR) the number of children who die before the age of five out of each thousand born. These range form a catastrophic 297 in Mozambique almost one in three, to a mere six in

Japan.

It shows the progress made over the past past years. Papua New Guinea’s rate has dropped from 248 in 1960 to 83 in 1989. UNICEF also has a table of “Basic Indicators on Less Populous Countries”, which mostly only indicate the infant (first year) mortality rate. This indicates how far many Pacific states have to go to reach Japanese levels. In Kiribati it is 62 per 1000, Vanuatu 56, Samoa 50, Solomon Islands 43, Tonga and Fiji 26, Marshalls, FSM, and Palau all 23, and Cook Islands 22 per thousand. This puls them in the range between the Philip pines (44) and Jamaica (16).

UNICEF emphasises the relationship

between women’s place in society and children’s survival, and the high school enrolment rates of most Pacific slates is reflected in the declining infant death rate. UNICEF has set a target of reducing the figures by one third in the next decade. If that seems to contradict the idea of holding the population down, the organisation is at pains to point out that the more children survive, the fewer children parents feel the need for.

Societies in which the death of child is a rare event are the societies with the lowest birth rates.

And societies with the longest life expectancies are generally the most developed, says the United Nations Development Programme in the Human Development Report 1991.

The report demonstrates that a big GNP is not the only target for develop ment agencies. It says that “there are far too many examples of wasted resources

and wasted opportunities: rising military

expenditures, inefficient public enter

prises, numerous prestige projects, grow

ing capital flight, and extensive corrup tion” and claims that human develop ment is possible if there is the political will and freedom to develop it.

The Human Development Index is a composite figure based on life expectancy at birth, educational attainment, and national income. This year UNDP has refined the figures to give more weight to national income, and length of time at school, which has, coincidentally, caused the United States to soar from 19th place in the tables to 7th. This must have been very reassuring for UNDP’s adminis trator, William Draper 111, an American nominee.

Japan still comes out on top, with a life expectancy off 78.6 years, an adult literacy rate of 99 per cent and an “educational attainment” score of 69.5.

One again many Pacific nations are missed since the index is mostly confined to UN members. Australia at 9th, New Zealand 15th, are both counted as High Human Development and then, in the category of Medium Human Develop ment, Fiji comes 71st with a life expectancy of 64.8, 80 per cent adult literacy rate, and 4.9 years of schooling.

Samoa is 81st with a life expectancy of 66.5, 90 per cent literacy, and five years of schooling, while the Solomon Islands come in at 96th, with 69.5 years life expectancy, 45 per cent literacy and one year average schooling.

In the Low Human Development category arc Vanuatu, 69.5 years, 53 per cent literacy and 3.7 years schooling, and Papua New Guinea, at 117th with a life expectancy of 54.9 years, a literacy rate of 4 6.7 per cent and average schooling of 0.9 years.

In fact, the figures seriously under represent most Pacific Islands; the life expectancy figures are for 1990, but the figures for literacy are five years, and for average school years, 10 years out of dale. A young population with an

increasing percentage attending school

will be reflected in later figures So what is the point of all these tables, other than to advertise the agencies which compile them? They do provide a measure of what is possible, and they avoid a free market emphasis on econ omic growth in its own right being a measure of humai happiness or even mere satisfaction. dby showing what neighbours are ac ving, it does allow strategic planning ) take place in the realms of the possi . Small investments in things like ino ations for children can produce such results that govern ments’ failures o do so appear inexcusable. □ Readings: • The State of World Population 1991 pub by UNFPA May 13 1991. • The Stale of The World’s Children 1991 pub by UNICEF & GUP January 1991. • The Human Development Report 1991 pub by UNDP & OUP May 22 1991. □