Margot Oneill
A new world disorder looms
SOME members of Washington’s Army of International analysts are warning that the future of the American-led western security axis, which has sheltered the South Pacific since World War 11, could be recast by the outcome of the war in the Persian Gulf.
While not a popular view, there are several scenarios including the worst-case possibility that the war could transform President George Bush’s vision of a “new world order” into international disorder undermining future
American leadership.
Even if the United States and its 28 allies in the Gulf, including Australia and New Zealand, score a relatively
quick military victory over Iraq, a post war crisis looms that could cripple hopes
for stability.
The political and economic fallout will ravage the region and linger ambiguously throughout the rest of the Third World which again witnessed many of the richest nations rally to protect the status quo.
Washington
The White House argues that, by overturning Iraq’s savage occupation of Kuwait and obliterating Saddam Hussein’s regime, it will deter future international aggression.
It believes the anti-Iraq coalition is vivid evidence of how governments can co-operate in the wake of the Cold War, uniting countries as disparate as the Soviet Union, Egypt, Canada, Syria and New Zealand, while also elevating the role of the United Nations.
This is the basis for President Bush’s “new world order” first promulgated when the Soviet block collapsed and the world was briefly gripped by euphoric relief.
While its nascent diplomatic potential is now engulfed by war, the conflict has enabled New Zealand’s conservative government to improve its standing in Washington.
It could return the South Pacific to the backwaters
Keen to heal the trans-Pacific rift over its anti-nuclear policies, Wellington has sent medical staff and three transport planes to support allied troops.
After New Zealand last supported US military action by backing the 1989 invasion of Panama in the United Nations, its then Foreign Minister, Michael Moore, was taken out of the US State Department’s deep freeze and given a face-to face meeting with Secretary of State, James Baker.
While resisting the early American preference for ground troops, Australia quickly dispatched two frigates and a supply ship. It has now also sent mine clearance and medical teams and is utilising the Narrungar communications installation in South Australia.
The fate of the tiny desert shiekdom of Kuwait could have remained as remote to the South Pacific as civil war in Eritrea if its major export had been carrots.
But it is oil. And the United States has staked its reputation as the world’s only superpower on Kuwait’s liberation.
While most experts predict a US military victory, the possibility of failure raises concerns about an exhausted US unable to act as effectively on the world scene.
Such an outcome would inevitably weaken American public resolve for foreign military commitments especially in the wake of Vietnam, and could necessitate a more
prominent regional role by Australia
and New Zealand.
More likely is that the post-war fallout could skew American priorities.
Even without on-going low level conflicts or threats requiring a continuing US military presence in the Middle East, the need to reconstruct Kuwait and Iraq and compensate
neighbouring countries such as Jordan will spur a political and financial preoccupation with the region.
Diplomats in Washington fear that American aid to the South Pacific could be affected at a time of burgeoning economic problems which will be exacerbated if oil prices soar.
South Pacific nations have enjoyed unprecedented access at the White House under the Bush administration which convened the first ever conference of island leaders addressed by a President last year. While diplomats believe the war is likely to have little impact on American military support for the region, it could return South Pacific interests to the backwaters of US foreign policy priorities from which they only recently emerged. □