Victory In Europe—And What
pp. 5-6 · Read in the full issue
Now?
THE German capitulation of May 7, 1945, bore out two forecasts made often in the 5i years of the European war—namely, that Germany would be broken by air-power, and that “the Jerries will collapse quickly as soon as Germany is invaded.”
The last five years will be described, in centuries to come, as the most dramatic in human history. Mankind came so very close to enslavement; we were saved from another Dark Age—which might have extended over hundreds of years—by a series of what seem like miracles; and then, when the United Nations at last were able to gather their strength, we witnessed a series of military victories and mass surrenders without parallel in the records of war.
Five years ago, all the nations literally cowered before a terrifying triumvirate Germany, Italy and Japan. The “Axis” .was opposed only by an isolated and unprepared Britain and a faltering France. To-day, two of those three Powers are utterly destroyed; the third is on the way out; and the world is dominated by the might and genius of Great Britain, united States and Russia.
IT is not yet generally realised that World War 11, in relation to United States and Russia, has brought changes that completely alter the international balance of power.
For 25 years, world politics were dominated by the Western European
nations. The Soviet Republic, almost unknown since 1917, was not regarded as militarily formidable. The United States, apparently secure in its size and its isolation, was quite deter mined that it would not be involved in European wars or politics. Great Britain, while necessarily involved in European international relationships, was demonstratively pacific in her outlook, and had no armaments worth mentioning, outside her navy.
The Axis Powers, while regarding United States, Russia and Britain as potential foes, looked upon them with contempt. “Once let us break the Anglo-French Alliance,” said the Nazis, “and the' world is ours.” They smashed the Anglo-French Alliance; and they were themselves broken by three things they—and all such planners—never had contemplated; The staunch courage and spiritual strength of the British people; the extraordinary genius of the Americans in organising their vast industrial strength for war, and their bravery and steadiness in actual fighting; and the ability of the Red leaders in using millions of men against German military might, plus the readiness of the Russian masses to sacrifice them selves for their Soviet.
XJOW, see what we have. Great Britain is the strongest Power in Western Europe, and British prestige was never higher—nor more worthy of recognition. Under Chur chill, Great Britain has attained a
than ever before in her glorious his tory. She becomes the protector of the European Democracies; and not the least of her obligations is to assist in the restoration of France.
Russia becomes t£e dominant Power in Eastern Europe and in Asia. She still is withdrawn and inscrutable, and most definitely is the unknown quan tity of future international relations, We do not know yet whether she will live in harmony with the democracies, or whether Moscow will consider that her great victory over Germany en titles her to interfere in the affairs of her neighbours, and try to force Communism upon the Democracies.
We hope for the best—but fear the worst.
The United States now is the strongest Power in the world. With her vast workshops, her endless re sources and her 140,000,000 literate and healthy people, she was poten tially the world’s strongest nation tor a long time. Now, she has proved it.
America, either alone or (prefer ably) in combination with Great Britain, can dominate the whole world, if she so desires. Generally, she has no such desire. The first principle of American politics is non interference with other nations. But most Americans now realise that science has so reduced world dis tances that America cannot ignore her neighbours—that she must accept her share of responsibility of main taming order in the world and pro tecting “The Four Freedoms.”
Russia, aloof and incalculable, is the unknown factor of the future.
The democracies fear that she may try to force upon the world, in Com
munism, a form of Totalitarianism as repugnant to free men as is Fascism or Nazism. If she does, the two great English-speaking Powers are capable, in combination, of meeting the threat to our liberties. But if Russia will . join America and Britain in policing the world for the preservation of human decencies, we may look for ward to an era of great human pro gress and happiness.
This, then, is the change in world affairs that comes out of VE-Day: The forces which will direct human des tinies, for a long time to come, are no longer in Western Europe. The centre of world affairs may shift from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific.
THE problems created by the Ger man surrender and the end of the European war are literally appalling.
The Allies have upon their hands about 6,000,000 German prisoners, at least 10,000,000 displaced peoples who have to be shifted home out of Ger many, and countless millions of other peoples who are idle and helpless in the other countries ravaged by war.
Our commanders are working day and night, trying to get these un happy millions on to the tasks of quick food production, before the European summer passes. But it is touch-and-go. Europe will be lucky if, in the coming winter and spring, it escapes a terrible famine.
HERE in the South Seas we are inclined to regard the end of the war in Europe with detached interest.
It is very comforting and encour aging; we are glad for the sake of all friends who have had the horror removed from th e& doorstep; but our war is still on. There can be no feel ing of security here until the power of Japan is broken.
How long will it take? Every man has a different estimate.
In all calculations, there is one common denominator everyone agrees that the fanatical Jap, fight ing to the death in his fox-hole, will “take an awful lot of finishing off.”
Even if our forces go in and occupy Japan itself, these formidable Jap armies, scattered all over China, Indo-China, Siam, Malaya, Borneo and Netherlands Indies, will have to be broken up and rooted out separ ately and individually.
We have learned, from experience in Germany, much about the bomb ing of industrial cities. Once we get bases close enough to Japan, our superior air forces quickly will des troy Jap industries and paralyse Japan, As many as 500 Superfortresses now attack Japan in one day. But they must fly 1.500 miles from Saipan, and it is doubtful whether they can carry more than two or three tons of bombs, plus fuel, for the long return journey, even when they re-fuel at Iwo Jima.
JAPAN cannot be effectively bombed, ° as Germany was bombed, until nearer bases are available. That is why the Japs are so stubbornly re sisting the Allies’ effort to occupy
Okinawa. Okinawa is less than 400 miles from Japan.
For effective bombing, however, air fleets should attack from two or three directions—say from Okinawa, from the nearby coast of China, and from the Russian Territory of Vladivostok.
If Russia intends sincerely to co operate with Britain and America in organising and policing the post-war world in the interests of freedom, Russia will attack Japan from the north, and will make bases available at Vladivostok. If—as many believe —Russia’s ultimate purpose is the overthrow of the “capitalist system” of Britain and United States, and the Bolshevisation of China. Russia will leave to the English-speaking nations the costly and perhaps exhausting task of subduing Japan, and will not co-operate. We shall know the answer, in due course.
MEANTIME, for the major attack on Japan, it seems we must have three things: Airfields closer to Japan, not only in Okinawa, but also in China, which will involve large scale operations; the establishment in the region southwards of Japan of the large forces of men and equipment about to be transferred from Europe —which apparently would involve the Überation of Malaya, the Malacca Strait and Singapore, so that traffic from Europe may make use of the direct route through the Suez Canal, the Indian Ocean and Malacca Strait; and there must be time for the train ing and adaptation of the new forces from Europe to the entirely new forms of warfare which they will meet in Western Pacific and South-east Asia.
Such considerations suggest that we may not expect the end of the Pacific war for another year or two.
Some people think that, when Japan sees the massive forces assem bling against her, and the hopeless ness of her position, she may sur render soon, before her ancient dynasty and her national structure are blown to pieces, along with her heavy industries. Others are equally sure that she will fight on to the end, in the hope that she yet may save something from the wreck through quarrels among the United Nations.
Present probabilities are that, in 1945, we shall see terrible, large-scale fighting in and around East Asia; and that then, as the Allies devote themselves to mopping-up, the war will tend to become localised in the East Asia-Indonesia region, while the rest of the world devotes itself to the appalling task of restoring itself to peacetime conditions.