Looking Into The Future

Some Occasions When the "PIM"

Was Right

A Review by R. W. Robson

THIS journalist would not be human if he did not occasionally want to say “I told you so!” As this war has developed, the temptation to quote from old commentaries in the “PIM” has been strong—now it is irresistible. Let us look back over comment and prognostication.

In September, 1940, writing on “One Year of War—and What Now?” I re ferred to the rescue of the British armies from France, the defeat of the German attempt to invade England, the Anglo- American agreement to protect the status quo in the Pacific, especially in relation to the East Indies, and we said: — “These events may prove to be the most important development in modern history. . . . It is now possible that Anglo-Saxondom (the British Empire and the United States ) will save, for the human race, the human decencies evolved in two thousand years of Christian civilisation. . . .

“But it was a near thing. We still can almost smell the stink of the Nazi con centration camps, and hear the maniacal screeches of the egocentric Hitler. Some day, perhaps, we shall know why this ‘natural military genius’ did not leap at England in June, while her coasts were unguarded, and there were confusion and chaos within.”

That was written while Goering’s bom bers still were pounding the heart of London, while Russia’s involvement in the war still was nearly a year away, and fateful Pearl Harbour was 15 months away. And we know now why Hitler failed to invade England—read the article on page 19 of this issue.

IN October, 1940, after describing the Pact that had just been entered into between Germany, Italy and Japan, we said:— “So far from scaring America, the Pact has done more than any other single thing to unite Americans in a deter mination to assist Britain to rid the world of Nazi-dom.”

Then we added the following comments, which we submit as having been a pretty good forecast: — “The waiting may be long, and the years hard and harsh; but . . . we can depend upon forces which have nothing to do with fighters and fighting machines. . . . It is inevitable that Germany and Russia will clash, sooner or later. If soon, it may shorten and end the war.

Watch Balkans developments and Russia’s reaction. And there is the possibility— fantastic, yet definitely there—that the new Pact is aimed, not at the United States, but at Russia.”

Although we offer that as an example of sound reasoning, we confess that, when the Nazis suddenly hurled them selves upon the more-than-ready Russians, we were as helpless as the next com mentator in trying to explain why it had happened like that.

All we knew then was that Russo- German hatred is fundamental —it goes deep down into racial antagonism, and far back into history. These two nations must fight.

The present indications are that they will exhaust each other. The German has the greater skill, but the Russian has the better staying-power. If, as now seems possible, Germany crumples under the combined weight of Russian military blows, British air attacks, and American industrial and economic strength, the German people will be faced with such a catastrophe as can scarcely be envisaged

now. Can anything save them from the masses of Russians and Frenchmen, Poles and Czechs, Dutch and Norwegians, who, maddened by misery and torture and clamorous for revenge, will fall upon them from every side, like tigers un leased? It is a picture fearful to con template; but it most definitely is within the realm of possibilities.

IN April, 1941, in an article entitled “We Now Are Under United States Pro tection”, we outlined the de facto situation in the Pacific—although it did not become the de jure situation until eight months later, when Japan attacked the United States in Hawaii. Here is an extract: — “Two years ago, we in the Pacific lived in complacent security under the White Ensign and the Anglo-French Alliance.

A few voices warned that a combination of the three predatory nations ( Germany, Italy and Japan ) might mean a return to jungle law and the destruction of our Pacific world; but most people dismissed the idea as fantastic.” (Again and again, in the years between 1932 and 1939, the “PIM” warned its readers of the danger of an alliance be tween the three great landless and pre datory Powers—Germany, Japan and Italy. This was said in the “PIM” in September, 1937, when we commented upon Japan’s attack upon China: “On the one side, we have Britain, France and USA, richly endowed with territory, democratic in government, and naturally eager to preserve the status quo. On the other side, Germany, Italy and Japan, all desperately overcrowded, all demanding new territories for colonisation, all im bued with the spirit of war, and all dominated by the idea of the totalitarian state. . . . The foregoing outlines as pretty an international problem as the Pacific has ever seen. No one can see the end of it. But this is certain: If Japan is allowed to ‘get away with it’, there will be very little safety for Europeans in future in the Pacific territories”. That danger was so very plain; but Britain’s only answer was a folded umbrella in the hand of septuagenarian.) The April, 1941, article proceeded:— “Six months ago, Japan became the official ally of Germany and Italy. The three 'predatory nations now were to gether, shieking for the kill. We in the Pacific face stark reality at last. . . .

“To-day we feel secure again; but all our complacency is gone. We know now that had it not been for the clear vision, unswerving courage and inspired leader ship of one of history’s greatest men (a reference to the munitions help given to Britain by President Roosevelt, and his guarantees in relation to the status quo in the Pacific) Britain to-day might have been fighting her last grim battle, and we here in the Pacific almost certainly would have been facing something worse than death. Within a few months, Franklin Delano Roosevelt changed the face of the world and the course of history.”

We said that eight months before war broke out between the United States and Japan, and a year before the armed forces of America came quietly to the occupation and protection of the South Pacific terri tories.

Mr. J. Hartley, formerly of the Papuan Customs, now is a member of the Com monwealth Customs Department, Sydney.