World-War In The Pacific

First Phase Is Ended :: What Will Be The Next Development?

OINCE the "PIM" was published in February, the Japanese have captured and occupied Singapore; captured and occupied most of the Dutch East Indies, including Java; driven the British out of most of Burma and occupied Rangoon; extended their occupation of New Guinea from Rabaul to Lae, Salamaua, and Finschhafen.

The first phase of the Pacific war has ended. There is much specu lation concerning the form which the next phase may take.

WHAT JAPAN HAS DONE, AND HOW SHE DID IT

NOW that Japan has completed the conquest of the Netherlands Indies, the armchair strategists of the world are discussing the question of “Where to next”; and the concensus of opinion is that the Japanese will now strike southwards to Australia, with a view to destroying the bases from which an American attack may come.

It would appear that the first and most important phase of this Japanese-Pacific war has ended, and that a new phase is opening, in which the conditions of war fare will be very different, and from which we may confidently expect very different results.

It is clear now that the Japanese, hiding behind their apparent ineptitude in the Chinese war, had in the last four or five years been most carefully and meticulously preparing for this attack upon Britain and USA, and that they went to war on December 7 with a plan complete in every detail and with a new —and, as it proved, a most successful — technique for landing on and occupying large Islands territories.

A necessary part of this technique was that Japan should have undisputed sea power; and by a series of bold enter prises and extraordinary good luck, she secured control of the sea in the North west Pacific. Consequently, the invasion and subduing of Hongkong, Malaya, Philippines, Singapore, Borneo, Dutch East Indies, and New Guinea went exactly according to plan, and like clockwork.

New methods of transporting and land ing troops were put into operation, so that every party landed from a particular ship was a self-contained unit, and was not dependent upon other parties landing from other ships, which might be sunk.

As a result, troops were deployed imme diately they landed. Under our old system, troops from transports usually had to link with troops from other transports, before they could be deployed.

The Japanese have also developed new and successful methods of jungle warfare; and although their individual soldiers are very poor stuff, not comparable in any way with European soldiers, they nevertheless have robot enrage and they work exceedingly well, in their robot like formations, and they travel very swiftly, carrying only light equipment and a handful of rice.

It is apparent now that much of this was foreseen by the Allied Command after the Japanese attack commenced m Malaya and the Philippines, and we had lost command of the sea; and all our operations that have taken place since have been delaying operations—our com manders knew they could not hold the Islands territories, including the East Indies, against the overwhelming masses Japan was throwing into the campaign.

American Aid—When?

BUT, now, the situation has changed.

The Japanese have finished with islands (unless they turn south eastwards towards New Zealand), and they must face European troops based on land masses—largely American and Aus tralian forces in Australia, and British forces (supported by Indian and Chinese) in Western Burma and India.

Not only do the Allies now know exactly what they have to face, but also they are beginning to feel the benefit of the enormous forces which America is moving into the battlefield.

It was pointed out in this journal in December, immediately after Japan struck at USA, that it would be fool hardy to expect substantial American aid inside of six months. America was a peaceful democracy, unwilling and un prepared for war; and, although she will in the end prove to be the decisive factor, this great nation cannot change quickly from peace to wartime conditions.

Nevertheless, all the signs and portents indicate that the Americans are coming into the battle-line much more quickly and more efficiently than they did m 1917-18, and American help of a char acter that will halt the swarming little yellow men can be expected very soon, now.

Courses Open To The Japs

FOUR courses now appear to be open to the Japanese;— 1. —They may stand on their present line and proceed to consolidate their gains. After all, they have got the territories they wanted Indo - China, Thailand, Burma, Malaya, Hongkong, Philippines, Borneo, East Indies, and New Guinea —everything needed for the crea tion of that Eastern Asiatic empire of which they have dreamed. But they can not be such fools as to believe that they can hold all this territory unless they first defeat the United States. Therefore— 2—Continuing to employ their successful

From

Tonga

A number of European women and children arrived in NZ recently from Tonga. Those in the accompanying group include three mem bers of the Methodist Mission Mrs. A. E.

McKay, Mrs.

C. F. Cribble, and Mrs. M.

E. Thompson. —Photo: “Mission Review”.

technique for overwhelming and occupy mg^lslands territories, they may strike south-eastwards, occupying successively the Solomons, New Hebrides, Fiji, Tonga, and (especially) New Zealand. Strategists immediately will say that this would be madness—they could not possibly hold such extended lines of communication.

But strategists said the same thing when the Japanese made their first southwards rush, and stretched their lines of com munication across 2,000 and 3,000 miles.

Their success may encourage them to stretch them out to New Zealand, in the belief that audacity will win and that they thus will be able to interpose an effective barrier in the communications between the United States and Australia. 3. —The Japanese may strike directly southwards at Australia. In this case, they will have to employ entirely new tactics, and meet conditions and forces of which hitherto they have had little experience. Ij; is possible that the leading American strategists, in their secret hearts, are praying that the Japanese will do just that very thing. 4. —The Japanese may not try to extend their southward thrust beyond the southern shores of New Guinea (or the northern shores of Australia) but, in stead, may concentrate all their power on a drive into India, in the confident belief that the masses of Indians will seize this opportunity to rise against British rule.

If the Japs adopted this latter plan, it would be done in collaboration with Hitler, who in the coming European spring, hopes to make a mighty thrust

down through the Balkans and Middle Asia, to join up with the Japanese in India. If this attempt is made, it will mean that Germany is confident of hold ing Russia and of standing up success fully to a powerful British attack on a new .i-.uropean front, yet to be opened up.

Our Fate Is In Europe

IT is probable that Japan’s grand strategy will await the events of the European spring and that, in the meantime, Japan will very actively proceed to consolidate her territorial gams.

If that should be so, the fate of our Pacific Territorities actually will be de cided upon the Russian front. If the con fidence of the Russians that they can cripple Hitlerism in this 1942 summer is justified, there quite easily might be a collapse of the war in Europe—in which event Japan would be “out on the end , a bough”. anc * a g°°d time would be had by all Americans and Australians.

Hut if Hitler should escape from the clutches of the Bear on the Russian — anc * would be wise to recognise that, in this respect, anything may hap pen—and be able to give effective help to Japan by a thrust from Europe, then the task before the Allies may be one of tremendous difficulty.

We people of the South Seas then would have to pin our hopes to the Americans, knowing that life here will be intolerable in the future, unless this swarming of a semi-human race from Japan is decisively smashed and driven back.

How Long Will Japs be in New Guinea?

MEANWHILE, what of New Guinea, Papua and the Solomons, our Pacific Territories which we have had to evacuate, and which now are partially occupied by the enemy?

Papua and the Solomons are still clear of Japs; but the latter regularly send reconnaissance planes—which are able to do a spot of bombing—from their Rabaul, New Ireland and Buka bases, over the Solomons, so that all ordinary activities there have been paralysed.

So far, only the Mandated Territory (Rabaul, Gasmata, Salamaua, Lae, Finschhafen, Kavieng, Buka and Kieta, and perhaps Wewak and Lorengau) have suffered Jap occupation.

There is nothing to indicate when we British may expect to reoccupy our Terri tories—but, when that time comes, it

most definitely will indicate the turn of the tide.

At present, clearly, the enemy intends to use New Guinea—and Papua, if he can get it—for operations against North Aus traha. When the tide turns, New Guinea wd l ° ne the drs t F’acific territories which the Jap will abandon— and his going will automatically clear Papua and the Solomons.

But much must happen before then so it would be wise to regard the three Territories as lost to us during 1942 If the Japs begin to occupy the Solo mons m force—there is no sign of it yet —that will be an event of significance.

It probably will indicate that they do not fear the American Navy, and that they plan a push down through New Hebrides upon the valuable territories of New Caledonia, Fiji and New Zealand