Is There to be War in the Pacific ?

THE situation in the north-west Pacific is exceedingly grave; but war with Japan is neither inevitable, nor as imminent as is suggested by the sensational newspapers and the hysterical Australian Government.

Hitler, searching desperately for relief from the grip of Russia and the ceaseless, growing hammering of Anglo-American air forces, is trying to rush Japan into war with United States. But Japan will not forget how Hitler twice betrayed her—in August, 1939, when the Russo- German Friendship Pact was signed, and in June, 1941, when, six weeks after the Russo-Japan Friendship Pact was made, Germany hurled herself upon Russia.

Then, why the present Pacific tension? It is the result of Japan’s cold and calculated determination to seize Indo-China, while France lies prostrate and helpless. This southwards move by Japan became inevitable, as soon as it was clear that the treacherous men of Vichy had sold themselves to the Nazis. Britain and USA will fight to keep Japan out of Thailand, Malaya, the Netherlands Indies and the Philippines: but they certainly will not now fight to retain Indo-China for France. That was apparent to Japan from the moment that British troops began to fight the Vichy French in Syria.

Japan needs—in fact, must have— new territories for colonisation, for markets, for sources of raw material, She wants South-east Asia, East

Indies and Philippines; and the Nazi seizure of France and Holland, and the embarrassment of Britain, re present, to her, a God-given chance of gaining new territories without fighting. She will go to the utter most limits of bluff, threats and diplomacy to take full advantage of that chance; but she will not—un less a completely irresponsible gang of military Fascists is in complete command in Tokio—go to war against the United States.

Everything we know indicates that Japan’s policy is to seize Indo-China; dominate Thailand, if that can be done without fighting; and, by ap parently abandoning an attitude of belligerency, to induce Britain, America, and Holland to give her far reaching trade concessions in Malaya, Philippines and East Indies. But we do not believe that her armed forces will step outside of Indo-China. rpHE action of Britain and America, A in replying to the occupation of Indo-China by immediately “freez ing” Japanese assets (in other words, by completely cutting off all com mercial intercourse with Japan), was not expected by Tokio. If there was to be war, it would have come then, when Japan’s Government still was reeling under the unexpected shock and while Hitler was most insistently urging an attack upon America, All who live in the Pacific terri tories have a vital interest in these events, and will most anxiously await

developments. Everyone is guessing, and the “PIM” is guessing. But our reading of developments is that Japan, while prepared to sacrifice every ethical consideration to her land-hunger, has no wish to fight us while we are still strong and un broken; and that, if we have any statesmanship among the demo cracies, we now can turn the present situation to such good account as to gain, in the Pacific, a long period of peace and security.

There are 90,000,000 people in Japan, increasing at the rate of nearly one million a year; and not one-sixth of Japan’s limited area is arable. Japan’s land will not feed Japan’s people. Consequently, Japan must have new territories and mar kets, for (a) colonisation, (b) the sale (so as to buy foodstuffs) of the goods which a third of the Japanese people, being unable to till the land, are en gaged in producing.

CONSIDER those stark facts; and then ask yourself—no matter how much you hate Japan, you must be fair—whether the Japanese should draw the sword and be prepared to die in war, in an attempt to get new territories, or stay dispiritedly at home, and starve to death.

Certainly, the memory of Tientsin and Shanghai rankles. We naturally do not wish to help the Japan that was responsible for those outrages.

But we Anglo-American people aspire to a world leadership based on free dom and justice for all peoples, in cluding Japan. Japan has, for solu

tion, a terrible problem of over population, complicated by an econo mic-industrial system which does not dovetail into that of the Western nations. If there is to be peace in the Pacific, we must aid Japan in find ing a solution.

That is, always providing that Japan will meet us in a consideration of the problem. But if Japan’s fanatical gang of mad-headed military Fascists will not negotiate with Britain and USA, and insist on proceeding with their “Co - Prosperity Sphere”—in other words, Japanese hegemony in Eastern Asia and the Northern Pacific —then there can be no solution for the present, other than shooting. We shall soon know.