Japan’S Hesitation

Strange Story of Events in Far East and Pacific, as Seen Against Historical Background :: Where Our Fate is Being Decided :: Japan Demands "Oceania”.

\ 7 ESTERDA Y, we were told that Japan is about to go to war, to drive southwards and to seize our Pacific ter ritories. To-day, it seems that Japan will not go to war, and that the Pacific will remain pacific. To-morrow, we probably shall hear that Japan is on the rampage, and that, at last, “we are for it”.

And so it goes on; and has gone on, for months. It is extraordinarily con fusing for the residents of isolated Pacific territories. In this article, writ ten on March 11, an attempt is made to explain what is happening, and why there is confusion.

First, let us have the historical back ground, which explains much; next, let us analyze the remarkable events of the past month; and then let us examine the latent probabilities of the present situation.

Historical Background

WHY are the Japanese, our friends and allies in 1914-18, now threaten ing to attack us? It is because the Japan of 1914-18 was a very different Japan from that of to-day.

During the past quarter-century, there has arisen in Japan a strong school of thought which demands Eastern Asia for the Asiatics, with Japan as their Heaven-born leader. This is based on a of national self-hypnotism, of which the Japanese are peculiarly cap able; and it has been given substance and support by the industrialisation of Japan, which creates a demand for new markets, new sources of raw material, new territories for a population that is over-crowding the Japanese archipelago.

The growth of this school inevitably brings Japan into conflict with her old friend, Britain. Look at the map. The Union Jack, or the flags of Britain’s allies, France and Holland, fly over every Far Eastern land which Japan might covet.

JAPAN, at first, turned north-west, into China; and in 1931 she seized Man churia. It was a blatant territorial rape, without political justification or historical excuse. It was the first test of the worth-whileness of the League of Nations.

The League dithered and fumbled, and did nothing. The United States was greatly angered; but USA, owing to that never-to-be-forgotten betrayal of Wood row Wilson by the Senate, was not a member of the League, and could do nothing at Geneva. USA, however, called upon the signatories of the Nine-Power- Pact to join with her in restraining Japan. 6

Britain “cray-fished”—Americans never will forgive Sir John Simon (then Britain’s Foreign Minister) for that—and Japan got away with her booty.

One wonders what was Britain’s policy at that time. Or did she have any policy? We must remember that in 1931, poor Britain had had two doses of Ram say Macdonald government, and she was very weak and discredited in inter national affairs. Probably, following the Macdonald pattern, Britain then was for appeasement in the Far East, in the hope of retaining Japanese alliance.

But it was foolishness. Asiatic diplo macy—and the Japanese represent, par excellence, the Asiatic mind—recognises as strength only the big stick in the ruthless hand. After 1931, having suc cessfully defied European might, Japan set out to create a mighty Japanese Empire, to embrace Eastern Asia and Oceania.

JAPANESE diplomats were convinced, after their coup in Manchuria, that Britain and France were effete and decadent. The rise of Fascism and Naz ism interested them greatly. If Germany and Italy could overthrow Britain and France, how easy would be the seizure of Indo-China, Malaya, Hong Kong, Burma, Borneo, East Indies, and God knows what else (even the Philippines and New Guinea), by the Sons-of- Heaven!

To us, in the early ’thirties, that may have seemed a fantastic dream. But, for the Japanese, it was no phantasy. It became the backbone of their foreign policy. And so, by about 1934-5, we see them (1) planning the conquest of China, (2) engaging in very serious discussions in Berlin and Rome and (3) organising anti-British feeling by planned and cal culated propaganda, as a first step in driving the European nations out of the

countries in the Far East.

For years, British diplomats of the Baldwin-Chamberlain school would not believe that Japan was going towards the “Axis”. But the foreign policies of Germany, Italy and Japan had two things

in common: Each country aggressively demanded new territories; each country coveted the colonies of Britain and France.

When Italy also defied the League of Nations, and seized Abyssinia, and “got away with it”, the ultimate adherence of Japan to the Axis was inevitable. The Abyssinian incident proved to Japan that Britain and France were decadent.

FROM then on, the militarists, or Fascists, came quickly to the con trol of Japan.

In 1935, as part of Japan’s clear-cut plan to secure East Asia and Pacific hegemony, Japan invaded China; but, Anglo-French pressure upon Japanese anti-Fascist industrialists, caused a with

drawal. In 1937, when Japan again Invaded China, the position had changed.

Italy, in Abyssinia, and Germany, in Rhineland, Austria and elsewhere, were openly defying Britain and France, and encouraging Japan to do likewise. The Japanese moderates weakened, and the militarists took charge, and pressed on with their inexcusable attack upon China.

True, that Chinese campaign went sadly awry. To-day, nearly four years after it commenced, China still is un conquered, while Japan, economically, is bled almost white. Nevertheless, Japan still hopes that somehow she can hang on to eastern China, and conquer the coastal provinces by slow infiltration of immigrants and commercial penetration, as demonstrated in Mindinao (Philip pines) and Hawaii.

But there are two nations whom Japan greatly fears —nations which may upset her long-range plan; Russia and Amer ica. Both have caused violent bendings and twistings in her foreign policy.

EARLY in 1939, Japan was feeling the strain of China’s resistance, and was inclining more and more to alliance with the Axis. In August, 1939, came the German-Russian Non-Aggres sion Pact.

Japan reacted violently. When the European war broke out, and for months afterwards, Japan spurned Berlin and Rome—she would not grasp the hand that had made a friend of Russia. Hit ler, then, was indifferent to Japan’s feel ings. Japan walked alone.

By mid-1940, Hitler was master of all Europe, except Britain. The rich colo nies of France and Holland, cut off from their mother countries, were dangling helplessly beneath the furiously-sniffing nose of Japan.

To Japan, this seemed like a gift from the gods. The long-coveted Indo-China and East Indies seemed to be hers for the taking. She had been prepared to wait half a century for them.

JAPAN moved tentatively southwards.

Russia, still mesmerised by Hitler, did nothing. But from the United States (see Cordell Hull’s statement of April 18, 1940), in clear, unequivocal tones, there came a warning, “Hands off!’’ The status quo must be preserved.

Japan paused, snarling. So near —and yet so far! Japanese diplomacy, now definitely opportunist, decided to wait a little.

During the autumn of 1940, Hitler tried to invade Britain, and failed. If there was chagrin in Berlin, there must have been rage in Tokio. For a prostrate Britain would have meant that America might be defied, and an easy road pro vided for Japanese occupation of the coveted territories in East Asia and Oceania.

AND now we see a most interesting thing. The emissaries of Hitler appear in Tokio with soft and coo

ing words, and pleasant reassurances.

Japan suddenly finds that she has lov ing friends. Why?

By September, 1940, Hitler had realised that, since he could not immediately overthrow Britain, he must (before he may enjoy his European conquest) be prepared to meet the United States, now coming fast to the aid of the last Euro pean democracy.

His only hope of beating Britain, since he failed in the autumn of 1940, is to divert American help. The easiest way to do this is to start an American - Japanese war.

Remember, Hitler has no love for Asiatics; and the Japanese cherish, for all Europeans, ineradicable hatred and contempt. But, suddenly, Hitler wants Japan’s help against America and Britain: and Japan is frantically anxious to seize this unexpected opportunity of getting possession of French and Dutch (and perhaps British) territories in and near Asia. Each will use the other, if he can.

THE plan is made. On October 28. 1940, Japan formally enters into an alliance with Germany and Italy.

We do not know the exact terms of the new pact. But we know its purport.

As soon as Germany and Italy have fully engaged Britain in Europe. Japan is to move against Britain, in Asia and the Pacific, and engage in war with the United States, if necessary. Germany undertakes to keep Russia quiet and gentle.

Germany is to have a free hand in Europe, Italy in Africa, Japan in Asia and Oceania. It is all so simple. United States can have both Americas, if she only will stay quiet.

Japan moves at once, to do her part.

In December, she withdraws part of her troops from South China, and starts a row between Thailand (which does whatever Japan says) and Indo-China, so that she may intervene to restore peace in Indo-China—good Hitlerian technique.

BUT the plan slips. Britain and Greece strike at Italy, in the Mediterranean and Balkans areas with all their strength, in December, January and February, and Italy receives such a thrashing that she is on the point of collapse. She is saved only by the action of Germany, in rushing forces into Italy, Sicily and Bulgaria.

Italy’s failure shakes Japan; but Japan still proceeds—though hesitantly—with her preoarations for a southwards drive upon Indo-China, Malaya and East Indies.

Then powerful British forces, includ ing Australians, appear in Malaya; there are increasing signs of Anglo-American determination to co-operate in maintain ing the status quo in the Pacific; Ger many and Italy have not yet produced the victories over Britain they had promised; and Japan has paused.

That is the position at the moment of this writing.

Remember, the Japanese are Asiatics, and only one thing counts with them— ruthless power. An unconquered Britain and an angry, arming America mean that Japan stays at home, to plead mel lifluously for more territories and trade opportunities—to which, as a matter of human justice, she is entitled. A broken Britain, and an isolated America mean that Japan will sweep triumphantly over all Eastern Asia and the Western Pad

fic, in a campaign of extermination of all that is European.

Now, against the background sketched in the foregoing columns, read the fol lowing summary of the events of the past month:— The Events of a Critical Month HERE, in chronological order, with commentary, are set out the events of a most critical month in Far Eastern affairs. In February, Japan seemed to be moving to war. Then, impressed by the resolute attitude of Britain and America, and the failure of Germany and Italy to do anything, she moved less and less aggressively; until, finally, it is announced that Mr. Mat suoka is going off to Berlin —for consul tation.

Feb, 13: Japan is moving large forces towards Indo-China. A Japanese battle fleet is off to Haiphong, northern port of Indo-China. New formations of British and Australian air forces in Malaya are “construed as a silent warning that Japanese acquisition of bases in Indo- China and Thailand will meet with opposition.”

American Defences

Feb. 13: Announced that United States is going to spend 8,000,000 dollars on strengthening the naval base at Pago Pago (Eastern Samoa) and 5,000,000 on Guam (the advanced American base, among the Japanese mandated islands —Caroline Group). A year ago, USA proposed to spend £30,000,000 on Guam, but abandoned the plan when Japan protested.

Feb. 14: Melbourne “Herald” says the possibility of Japan entering the war is “ominously closer”; and speculates that Japan would strike at Malaya, through Thailand: at the Dutch East Indies; and at New Caledonia. Other probabilities would be Nauru (valuable phosphates) and Timor (only 400 miles from Austra lian Darwin) where there are already many Japanese.

Feb. 14: Reported from New York that three German raiders have left Japan ese ports for operations in the South Pacific.

Feb. 17: This has been a week-end of tension in Australia, in which events of major importance in the Far East were momentarily expected. But Mr. W. M.

Hughes made this statement: “Unless Britain suffers major defeat, the situa tion in the Far East, though grave, need not unduly disturb us.”

Feb. 18: Large Australian military force has arrived in Singapore, and been distributed through Malaya, on a defence basis. American newspapers emphasise that this, and the American decision to establish a strong base at Guam, show that the policy of trying to appease Japan has ended.

Feb. 19: USA is taking steps to strengthen her naval establishments upon the Pacific Islands of Palmyra, Johnson, Midway, Wake, Kingman, Rose.

Tutuila and Guam.

Are We Nervous?

Feb. 20: Japanese spokesmen in Tokio and Washington insist that Britain and USA are unnecessarily nervous—Japan’s intentions are entirely peaceful. She sought merely economic expansion and has no intention of seizing territories.

American commentators amusingly ask: Then what are Japanese troops doing in China, Hainan Island, Indo- China and Thailand, and why are Japan ese naval forces clustering so thickly around Indo-China?

Feb. 20: An offer by Japan to act as

mediator or to take whatever action was calculated to restore normal conditions, not only in East Asia, but anywhere in the world, was coldly received in London. where there is a much clearer understanding of Hitlerism than there appears to be in Tokio.

Feb. 22: Japan’s reaction to America’s decision to strengthen the defences of Guam and Samoa is that it represents part of Anglo-American plans to intimidate Japan, and that it is certain to aggravate relations between Japan and the USA.

Feb. 24: The “trade talks” in Batavia between Dutch and Japanese (interrupted because Japan said she could not recognise the authority of the Dutch Government, in exile in London) have been resumed. The Japanese demand all kinds of trade concessions. The Dutch are quiet and courteous.

Demand For “Oceania”

Feb 24- World-wide sensation railed bv the following statement made ta Japanese Diet Mint S•— 7 Matsuo * a (Foreign “I believe that the white race must cede Oceania to the Asiatics. My theory

north"and 2d*l M 0 miles “St

and west must be mide a nlacf to whfch Asiatic raoDlec^™terate P This reeion has sufficient natural resources to support from 600,000,000 to 800,000,000 people.

We believe that we have a natural right to migrate there. While it is difficult to conduct political affairs according to advocated ideals. I believe that the white race must cede Oceania.”

Mr. Matsuoka said that at present he was without a definite programme for the establishment of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere, but that he hoped to obtain Oceania as a migration region for Asiatics by means of an under st&ndins? with thp Furonpan and AmpHcan peoples European and Amen The vagueness of Japan’s claim left most commentators guessing. Japan later explained that “Oceania” did not include Australia, New Zealand or the Philippines, but did include “such

sparsely-settled areas as New Guinea”.

Then, it was asked, what land did it include which would give room for 600,000,000 people? There was no answer.

It is authoritatively held that Oceania proper comprises practically all the islands in the Pacific, and measures 5,000 miles east to west, by 3,000 miles north to south. It does not include Philip pines, Hawaii. East Indies, or the main land of New Guinea.

Feb. 24: There are persistent reports that Japanese have occupied aerodromes in Indo-China.

Pact With Russia Sought

Feb. 25: Japan’s Foreign Minister, declaring that the building up of friendly relations between Russia and Japan was “fundamental” in solving impending problems between the two countries, stated that negotiations for a commer cial treaty were progressing. He is expected to make a personal visit to Moscow to conclude a non-aggression pact with the Soviet satisfactory to Japan. This is regarded as a part of Japan’s preparations for a southwards drive.

Feb. 25: The armistice between Thai land and Indo-China, arranged by Japan while she “negotiated” peace between them, has been extended until March 7.

The armistice, etc., are regarded by Anglo-American observers merely as Japan’s method of securing her foothold in both countries. The Vichy Govern ment is showing reluctance to negotiate, and Japan has submitted compromise proposals.

Feb. 26: As an indication of the, per sistence of Japanese South Seas pene tration, it is announced that a Japanese flying-boat service has been commenced between Yokohama, Palau (Western Carolines), Dutch East Indies and Dilli, in Portuguese Timor, only 400 miles from Darwin. There is no demand for this service, and Timor already is served by two regular seaplane services, one Dutch and one Australian.

(Continued On Page 50)

Dutch New Guinea

Feb. 26: Japanese Foreign Minister Matsuoka said: “Japan has no definite, immediate programme for Oceania. But, as a long-range ideal, Western Powers should realise that Japan and Asiatic Powers must have some place to send their excess population, and that the islands of Oceania are the logical place, since they are largely undeveloped and under-populated.” He declared that after Japan’s withdrawal from the League of Nations in 1932, he had asked the Dutch Government to allow Asiatic

migration to New Guinea, which was under-populated and undeveloped.

Almost simultaneously, at Batavia, the Dutch New Guinea Development Co. announced a plan to open vast jungle territories and to establish rubber, cocoa, and oil palm estates. It proposes to explore thousands of square miles of forests as a sequel to a year’s work in air mapping.

The Dutch point out that the 735,000 square miles of the Netherlands Indies, including Dutch New Guinea’s 155,000 square miles, have a population of 70,000,000, nearly 100 to the square mile.

Java’s huge surplus population is being steadily shifted on to the other islands of the Indies.

Indo-China “Crisis”

March 1: A serious crisis has arisen because France will not agree to Japan’s plan for settling the Thailand-Indo- China dispute.

A Japanese official at Saigon said that with 12,000 Japanese troops in Tongking (northern Indo-China), a large Japanese air force at Hanoi (Indo-China), Japan ese warships outside Haiphong, and other warships off southern Indo-China, the French must agree to the latest Japan ese proposals. The statement was sig nificant, as showing the extent to which the Japanese have entered Indo-China, where they have no right whatever.

The Thailand-Indo-China crisis finds the Dutch, Indonese, and Chinese in the Netherlands East Indies resolved firmly to face any threat. Defence measures include the establishment of many secret aerodromes.

March 2: Japan received a conciliatory reply from France, and a settlement of the Thailand-Indo-China dispute, on terms which leave Japan in virtual occu pation of both countries, is now expected.

A “Warning”

March 4: A warning that if Britain attempted to use Chinese national troops for the defence of Burma, that colony would become a battlefield in which the Japanese would trap and crush the com bined forces of Britain and China was made by the spokesman of the Japan ese Army in Formosa. This, he said, would result in the permanent closing of the Burma Road arms route to China.

Britain would also be “digging her own grave”.

March 5: Heavily armed battalions of United States marines have sailed from San Diego to positions in the Pacific, believed to be Samoa and Christmas Island. The moves will extend the American defensive line in the Pacific and help to close the gap between Hawaii and Australia, regarded as a strategic weakness.

March 6: Japan announces “basic understanding” between Indo-China and Thailand.

March 9: Japan’s Foreign Minister, Mr. Matsuoka, is about to leave Tokio for Berlin. Commentators say that Hit ler wants him to explain why Japan is hesitating, and not carrying out her share of the Pact—which is to attack Britain in the Pacific, March 11: The Japanese, on March 9, “quietly evacuated” the 250 miles of South China Coast which, on March 3, they occupied with flourishes and propa gandist boasting. There is no explana tion of the “mystery retreat”.

Note: For a summing-up of the position in relation to Japan and the Pacific territories, see our main article on page 5.

Miss P. Mills, BA, of the Methodist Mission, has returned to Suva, Fiji, after furlough in Australia.