Will Japan be the Tool of the Hun?

AMONG all the diplomatic horrors of this tragic twentieth century, there has been no more pathetic sight than that of the present-day Japan, stumbling around in the international darkness, and appar ently headed for the abyss.

The situation in the Pacific, to day, is critical, beyond description. At any moment, Japan may find herself at war with the United States and the British Empire. If that happens, the Japanese Empire will be wiped out, and Japanese nationhood and culture which definitely have a place in the world—will be set back by hundreds of years.

Neither Britain nor the United States has sought this position—the Fascist dictators of Japan are en tirely to blame. Japan’s attempt to drive Anglo-American-Dutch interests out of East Asia and the North-West Pacific commenced in 1936; and by the end of 1938 (when Japanese “statesmen” had decided that the meaning of Munich was that Totali tarianism had triumphed over Demo cracy) it had become marked. In 1938 and 1939, when Britain was so deeply preoccupied in Europe that she was almost helpless in Asia, the Japanese thought the time fitting to insult and abuse British subjects, and drive British merchants and officials out of China. Britain just had to take it”; but British people will not forget damnable incidents at Tientsin, Shanghai, and elsewhere. By 1940 the blind military fools of Japan had turned their hatred upon Americans, and anti-American incidents were numerous. Thus was created an atmosphere in which Anglo-American diplomacy must find it hard to be patient with the bombastic gentle men in Tokio.

There never was any need for all this. Well-informed opinion in Britain and United States recognises clearly

the fearful problem of Japan (100,000,000 people, packed into the Japanese Archipelago, must find new territories and markets, or perish); and we realise also that upon the great colonies-owning Powers lies an obligation to meet the needs of Japan, as an alternative to recurring wars in Asia and the Pacific. This politico-economic problem is com plicated greatly, and its solution de layed, by the differences in Japanese living standards and industrial con ditions, in comparison with those of Europe. Nevertheless, Anglo-American opinion—especially the Americans, whose foreign relations history is non imperialistic, and almost a continuous record of national altruism—was mov ing steadily towards a solution; when the Fascist elements in Japan some how got control, and tied the Asiatic Empire to the tail of the Rome- Berlin Axis.

IF ever a great Power was “led up the garden path” by false diplo macy it was Japan. The Germans have little regard for the Japanese— in fact, most of their notable written references to Japan, prior to 1936, are contemptuous; but, when Hitler planned world domination, he wanted something with which to threaten America and keep her quiet, while he dealt with Prance and Britain, and Japan seemed to suit his purpose. To the Japanese Fascists, Germany was the agency which would cripple Britain and cow America, and leave the Eastern world under Japanese domination; to the Germans, Japan was merelv a willing tool, to be un scrupulously used. And used she has been. Germany, with devilish clever ness, has manoeuvred Japan into the position that, if Germany declares herself at war with the Americans, Japan also must fight them. None who know the Nazis can have any

doubt that thev will abandon Japan, and tear up the Pact, whenever it suits them.

If Japan had kept clear of the Axis, as wisdom demanded, and Japan’s leaders had conducted them selves properly, Japan certainly would have had a place at the peace con ference, and Japan probably would there have received, without sacrifices, all the territory and concessions which human justice says she should have.

AS it is, what probably will happen?

America is now committed com pletely to the defence of democratic freedom and the common decencies of life. When the Nazi Hun finds his great plan going astray—which prob ably will be before the middle of 1941 —he will, almost certainlv. in a mili tary and an international sense, go mad. He will use every filthy weapon at his command, such as poison gas, and he will attack the United States.

By that time, he clearly will be a beaten Hun; but, under the Pact made between Germany, Italy and Japan, Japan then will be expected to de clare war upon America. Will Japan do it?

Out of America, there has come not one word indicating an eagerness to fight Japan. All the fire-eating and blood-spitting have been done by the Japanese—the New Year declarations of their Premier, their “spokesmen”, and their newspapers indicated a spirit exceedingly bellicose. The Premier, Prince Konoye, for example, said Japan was “completely loyal to the Axis”, and was “determined to break the Anglo-American conception of the status quo in the Far East”.

America, on the other hand, is quiet, but completely confident, and is making preparations for any eventuality, with impressive speed.

The greatest fleet ever seen in the Pacific lies in the North-West Pacific —strong enough, by itself, to destroy

everything Japanese that floats upon the blue sea. But U.S.A. would not be alone. It has just been disclosed that Britain now has 19 capital ships —more than the combined total of Germany, Italy and Japan—and, since most of Italy’s six battleships met disaster at Taranto and Naples, it may be assumed that considerable British naval strength can be based on Singapore and Australia.

JAPAN is exceedingly vulnerable.

Japan’s army, while fairly good —though not comparable with northern European troops—will be kept fully employed by the millions of Chinese now training and arming; the quality of her air force is only moderate; and her navy, while be lieved to rate very high in equipment, efficiency and fighting spirit, will certainly be driven off the seas by the combined forces of United States and Britain, Without command of the sea, Japan is lost. Her sea-borne com merce now is her economic life-blood.

In 1919, she had 1,418 merchantmen, of 2,325,000 tons. By 1939, she had 2,337 ships, tonnage 5,629,000. In the same period, her merchants have pene trated into every corner of every land in and around the Pacific. Tens of millions of poor industrial workers in Japan now depend on that trade. If she stays neutral, she holds most of that, and will be favourably placed in the new order which mankind is determined shall follow this war. If, led by her greedy, foolhardy Fascists, she goes into the war beside Germany, her ultimate economic collapse, apart from her military defeat, may well rank among the greatest disasters in human history.

But, though the situation is bal

anced on a knife-edge, there still is hope. There are many wise men in Japan, and they must see where adherence to that Pact with Ger many may lead them. If Japan is determined to fight, she should have struck two months ago, when Britain was less strong and confident, and America’s policy not so well-defined.

The fact that she did not do so sug gests that there is in Japan less con fidence in an Axis victory than may be indicated by the clamorous pub licists of Tokio.