One Year of War—And What Now ?
pp. 7-8 · Read in the full issue
ON the exact anniversary of the out break of war, the United States handed over to Britain 50 old but very serviceable destroyers—our most urgent need and received from Britain leases of important naval and air bases in Newfoundland, West Indies and South America. In the same month, the United States and Canada formed a joint “Board of De fence”, and Britain, United States and Australia made an agreement to jointly protect the status quo in the Pacific, especially in relation to the East Indies. Incredible, growing masses of munitions now are pour ing across the Atlantic, from United States workshops, to the eager, in creasing, high-spirited forces of Britain.
These events may prove to be the most important development in modern history.
When, three months ago, Germany over-ran France, the whole world, outside of the British Empire, antici pated the early defeat of Britain. But those observers who know history and understand racialism, were never more confident. “These damned Eng lish never know when they’re beaten!”
In July and August, two seeming miracles were accomplished. The British armies were rescued from France and re-equipped; the German invasion of Britain was beaten off.
At first, the world would not believe that this leaping, crowing Hitler
could be halted. But now the fact is being accepted, and the prestige of Britain is rising—too rapidly, and too high for safety, perhaps. But the signs are unmistakable.
The French colonies, which in June and July were resigned to defeat, are taking heart again, and rallying to General de Gaulle; Turkey, once more, is outspokenly pro-British, and Russia is voicing grudging respect for Britain’s strength and spirit; Japan, though very difficult, now seems more conciliatory towards Britain; and, most significant of all, the United States, faced in June-July with the imminent, deadly peril of democracy being swept out of both Americas by ruthless waves of Nazis and Fascists, now believes that the monstrous ad vance can be halted, and is aligning herself very gladly and confidently with the British. It is now possible that Anglo-Saxondom (the British Empire and the United States) will save, for the human race, the human decencies evolved in two thousand years of Christian civi lisation.
BUT it was a near thing. We still can almost smell the stink of the Nazi concentration camps, and hear the maniacal screeches of the egocentric Hitler. Some day, perhaps, we shall know why this “natural military genius” did not leap at Eng land in June, while her coasts were
unguarded, and there were confusion and chaos within.
It is far too soon to start cheering.
We still are in the wood, though day light can be seen through the trees, far ahead. As this is written, count less German air squadrons are rain ing bombs ceaselessly upon Britain, day and night. Our shipping is being destroyed, at the rate of at least 40,000 tons per week. Huge forces of Germans and Italians are gathering to attack us in North Africa and Palestine, to seize the Suez Canal and cut the Empire in two. The Axis Powers hold all Europe, between Portugal, in the west, and Russia, in the east. Germany and Italy have just seized Roumania, in a bloodless manoeuvre, so that they now have all Roumania’s oil and grain, command of the Balkans and access to the Black Sea. Russia remains aloof and in calculable. Even in the happiest cir cumstances, we must prepare for years of war.
The picture has another, and a less gloomy side, however. More strongly than ever, we have command of the sea: and Germany cannot enjoy European hegemony without sea power. We can challenge the enemy in the air already; and, thanks to the Americans, our air forces are grow ing more rapidly than his. In Europe, we are fighting against 80,000,000 Germans and 50,000,000 Italians, who are being served by another 60,000,000 people in the countries they have
conquered. How can 40,000,000 op pose 130,000,000 British enemies, and b 0,000,000 enslaved peoples? Because, behind Britain, there are now, being organised for war on a great scale, at least 20,000,000 more Europeans in the Empire, 50,000,000 non-Europeans, 350,000,000 people in the Indian Em pire—and, in addition, 120,000,000 Europeans in the United States, who are giving Britain non-belligerent aid of incalculable value, and who cer tainly will become belligerents if Britain is in danger of defeat.
If this war were a straight-out military contest, we should, long ere this, have been stamped into the dust. But, everywhere, we are pro tected by salt-water. Those goose stepping Axis millions cannot get at us anywhere; and so, because of our R.A.F. and our Navy, we can develop and use against the enemy the over whelming economic strength of our Empire, while, behind our water barriers, we can build up armies which will be a real, and maybe the final factor in the struggle.
Britain, within Britain, can mobi lise sufficient military strength to defend the country, so long as the R.A.F. and the Navy are the first lines of defence. From the Dominions and colonies there can be mobilised prob ably 2,000,000 white soldiers; while India can contribute unlimited mil lions of men, known to us for more than a century as brave, clever and loyal fighters under the Union Jack.
We have no hint of British strategy; but what we can see seems to in dicate the probable shape of the coming war.
While Britain holds the seas, and pounds ceaselessly with her air force at her Continental enemies, great armies will be prepared in India, Australia, New Zealand and South and East Africa and, supplied by factories in those countries and U.S.A., those armies eventually will move up through the Near East and North east Africa, to attack the enemy in the Mediterranean region.
Some commentators believe that this war will be decided in the air.
Perhaps it will. But more conser vative thinkers prefer to plan for a long, hard war that will be, ulti mately, a test of staying-power and morale. In such a war, the vast re sources of the British Empire, and the dauntless spirit of our people, will decide the issue. * * * BUT be prepared for hard knocks.
It may have seemed to us that all the disasters that possibly could damage our cause happened between March and August, 1940—and that any big international event, from now on, must be in our favour.
But there still are three countries which can add to our embarrassments.
Spain may join the Axis, and pro vide for German armies a bridge to North Africa. Russia may just as readily go towards Berlin as towards London. And Japan, in her Chauv inistic eagerness to gain territory and trade from the now unprotected French and Dutch empires, may pre cipitate a struggle in the Pacific with those committed to the status quo.
Nevertheless, at the end of the first
year of the Hitler War, British pros pects are far better than would have seemed possible three months ago.
New phases should develop quickly, now. Hitler dare not stand still: if he does, he will be overtaken and overwhelmed by the discontent of those German masses to whom he promised victory and peace in 1940.