Grim Prospect For Copra Producers

AT the moment of this writing (June 11) the outlook for our copra industry is dark. Coconut planters in the South Seas would be wise to face up to the facts.

Two things threaten to depress the industry for the present, so far as the South Pacific territories are con cerned. They are, lack of markets, and lack of transportation.

The events of the past few weeks have reduced the copra market very seriously. When war broke out, in September last, all the Central Euro pean markets immediately were cut off. Nothing further happened until April, when Germany suddenly seized Denmark and Norway, and isolated Sweden. That meant that the whole Scandinavian market also was gone— an important factor. The next rush by the Nazis, in May, resulted in the occupation by the enemy of Holland, Belgium and a part of Northern France, causing the most severe dis location of the copra market up to that time.

Planters need not be reminded that the largest single producer of copra in the world is the Netherlands Indies, and the distribution of that trade, of course, was controlled from Hol land. From the moment that Germany seized Holland, that enormous copra business was dislocated, and mostly was compelled to seek new markets.

Finally, after months of hesitation, Italy has entered the war—and that, of course, means that practically the whole of the Mediterranean demand is cut off, including the extremely im portant Marseilles market for second class copra.

Under these war conditions, the European market for copra is con fined almost wholly to Britain, France and the Iberian Peninsula. We have

lost the important markets of Ger many, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, Italy, and parts of France.

Britain and France want coconut oil urgently, and in large quantities, for the manufacture of margarine, especially. But Britain, in the plainest possible terms, has informed the big firms which handle South Pacific copra that she can get all the vege table oil seeds she requires from places much nearer than the South Pacific —and that that is a primary con sideration, owing to the need for con serving merchant shipping.

As far as can be ascertained, Britain and France will accept African, Mala yan and Dutch East Indies copra, in that order, in preference to South Pacific copra, because of the saving represented in transportation time and cost. The proper allocation of merchant shipping is a thing vital to the war effort of the Allies—and, so far as Great Britain is concerned, the South Pacific territories are the Antipodes, and therefore represent the greatest distance over which copra can be carried. Those of us who may have felt thankful that we are so far from the battlefields may now contemplate the other side of the picture; we are at a serious dis advantage in getting our produce to the market.

Naturally, copra merchants in the South Seas have been turning anxi ously around, seeking markets alter native to Europe. There has been a certain amount of regular sale in Mexico; but, lately, the Mexican market, owing to currency troubles and a mounting threat of political disturbances, has become irregular and untrustworthy. There is little, if any, market available in the United States —copra from the Philippine

Islands more than supplies North American needs.

It appears that copra producers in the South Pacific Territories are faced with the greatest crisis in the history of their industry. The Islands stores are bulging with copra, and there is no sign at present of sufficient ships being made available to take it away. The big trading firms say, now, that they have bought copra to the limit of their resources—they dare not store any more. The Common wealth Government, urgently ap pealed to by men and interests in the Australian Pacific Territories, has pointed out that it dare not form a copra “pool”, because copra is too perishable a commodity. The sug gestion put forward by a prominent member of the New Guinea Legis lative Council, that Australia should bring Papuan and New Guinea copra to Australia, and mill it there, and store the oil, etc., and make advances to the producers against these pro ducts, was investigated, but was held to be not practicable.

It appears that, for a time, the copra producers will just have to ac cept the fact that there is little market for their produce, and try to carry on, as best they may. They may be certain of all possible help from the Administrations. It is most important that they be encouraged to remain on their plantations, some how.

Everything depends upon the events of the next few weeks. If the war goes against the Allies, there will be a general rearrangement of inter national affairs, as well as of indivi dual lives, and the condition of the copra industry will be one of the least of the things we shall have to worry about. If, on the other hand, we can hold the mad-men of Europe for a few months, while we restore our military strength, and retain our freedom and independence, it should

not be very long—probably not more than a few months—before trade conditions will be re-established, and suddenly we may find half the world clamouring for the products of the coconut plantations.

Wise men will make dispositions to enable them to stand a siege, and to hang on, somehow. There will be losses, discouragement, a great need for a brave spirit. But the pendulum will swing again.