Rabaul's Future

May Remain N.G. Capital Risk of Future Eruptions

THE suggestion has been made, several times, in this journal, that the recommendation of the expert vulcanologists (that Rabaul should be abandoned as the Administrative headquarters of New Guinea) should be reviewed. It is interesting, there fore, to note that the members of the Amalgamation Committee, in the valuable report made recently to the Federal Government, made the fol lowing statements: — PERHAPS we should say that, but for the vulcanological aspect, we con sider Rabaul a more suitable location for the capital than any other site viewed by us.

The following are extracts from evid ence furnished to the Committee by Mr.

N. H. Fisher, Government Geplogist to the Territory, who accompanied Drs.

Stehn and Woolnough during their vul canological investigations at Rabaul dur ing 1937, and who had just returned from a course of instruction under Dr. Stehn, and a tour of inspection of the volcanic areas in the Dutch East Indies:— “In the two years which have elapsed since the eruption it has been determin ed that it was a phase in the definite periodic release of forces and not the initiation of a new stage in the life of the volcanoes. Therefore, there would be a long period of quiescence before an eruption of a similar nature occurred.

“He was of the personal opinion that there was no danger to life in Rabaul, and this opinion was based on scientific grounds. There was, however, a definite probability of another eruption in not less than 40 years, which would cause approximately the same damage to Ra baul as the last, if occurring during the South-East season, but much less if dur ing the North-West, but there would then be the possibility of giving the po pulation about three days’ warning by means of the observatory. Mr. Fisher thought that Dr. Stehn would probably agree with this opinion.

“The science of vulcanology was suffi ciently advanced to enable close range predictions to be made. Such predictions were an established fact with most vol canoes on which permanent observation posts were established. Long range pre dictions of the exact date of future eruptions were not possible in the case of volcanoes of the Rabaul type, but a general forecast of their behaviour was possible.

“Mr. Fisher considered that Dr. Stehn’s opinion, as expressed in the Vulcanolo gical Report, was that the Government should consider the removal of the ad ministrative headquarters from Rabaul or of permitting them to remain there pro vided provision was made for adequate warning to be given. He considered that this report has to be read over carefully to obtain Dr. Stehn’s opinion.

“Mr. Fisher personally thought that Tavui was safe from any possible vol canic disturbances at Rabaul.

“The next eruption of Vulcan may pos sibly be in an easterly direction, and it is just possible that future eruptions may eventually block the entrance to the harbour.

“Regarding Vulcan, Dr. Stehn is of the opinion that the centre is more or less localised with a possible north-easterly extension.

“Evidence indicates that Tabalanakaia is not likely to erupt again”.

It was suggested to us that perhaps the Commonwealth Government would

invite Dr. Stehn to re-visit the area and make further report in the light of data that may have become available since the 1937 eruptions. We merely record this suggestion.

Observatory Buildings

A contract has been let at £1,120, for the erection of the necessary buildings for a vulcanological observatory in Rabaul.

It is intended that watch shall be kept upon the volcanoes from three widely separated points, north, west and east of Rabaul. These points are connected by telephone, and it. is considered that the kind of observation to be established will give three days’ warning of an eruption.

Mr. William John Paine, who lived for some years in Western Samoa before he finally settled down in New Zealand, about 30 years ago, died recently in Palmerston North Hospital, N.Z.