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HOW LONG WILL THIS HITLER WAR LAST?

A MONTH ago, after years of argu ments, excursions and alarms, Britain and France were prepared to fight Germany, Italy and Japan; and it was expected that Russia would support the democracies. To-day.

Britain and France are at war with Germany; Russia has made a friendly Pact with Germany; and Italy and Japan are neutral. It is one of the most rapid and astonishing inter national re-alignments in history.

It seems that Hitler, having decided to attack Poland, had to choose be tween a war in which Italy and Japan would be his allies, and in which, with Russia as a possible enemy, he would be cut off from es sential supplies; or a war in which Germany would fight alone, but with Russia’s unlimited resources in food stuffs, oil and materials available to her. He chose the latter course and, to the amazement of the world, made a Pact with Russia, the nation he had abused and threatened for 15 years. The Berlin-Rome-Tokio Axis —in fact, the Nazi regime itself— was based on hostility to the Com munist republic.

A war between the democracies and a German-Italian-Japanese combina tion would have dislocated world commerce and demoralised inter national relationships. We in the Pacific would have met perils and terrors, innumerable and indescrib

able. But the present war, if it does not spread to other nations, will not greatly disturb present-day condi tions. In fact, it may permit much freer trade than we have known for some years.

IT would be lunacy to under estimate the task before the Allies, however. Hitler calculates that, by the time winter closes down, Poland will be broken and conquered: that Russia will leave his eastern frontier alone; and that his armies can hold the Siegfried Line (or West Wall) against France and Britain, in definitely. Already, the Poles have lost the eastern half of their country, in which are their essential coal mines and metal industries.

The Franco-German frontier (Bel gium to Switzerland) is less than half the length of the 1914-18 western front. There, the Maginot Line (French) confronts the Siegfried Line (German) and both are considered impregnable. Perhaps either may be broken—but at an inconceivable cost of men and munitions. We can ex pect heavy fighting, but no decision, on the western front.

The Allies are completely dominant on the sea. German merchant ships have disappeared—not a ton of sea borne goods can reach Germany, through the North Sea. But Ger many can get essential supplies through the Baltic, from Scandin

avia; from Russia, across her eastern frontier; and from Hungary, Rou mania; Jugoslavia and Italy. In that

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Lnan 111 When war commenced, over 40 large German submarines already were at sea; and. up to this date, they llave sunk 14 Allied ships, aggre- Siting over 84,000 tons, it is hoped t,hat this condition will not last long; Alll . ed n . avies are „ hl * nta , l ,B dow " the submarines, methodically, and witil a new and deadl Y technique.

Britain and France were so well prepared that they had reached, two days after war broke out, a stage which they had not reached two years after the outbreak of war in 1914. This aroused an optimistic be lief that this war will soon be over.

But consider the facts. Germany, a nation now of 80,000,000 people, “l °“ Imes-strong or fence aAd d saw fice d ’ hei^are ana sacrmce - °P en t 0 her are > as enumerated > sources of abundant “WJJJf-„ n J he Allies have great airr ! ies and navies, magnificently equipped. But how can they deal a crippling blow to Germany, provided Germany is content to fight on her own frontiers? Unless the German morale cracks, or unless there is pro duced some new and devastating weapon or technique, Germany, for years, can repel the strongest forces that the Allies can bring against her.

DESPITE the lessons of the Spanish and Sino-Japanese wars, it was thought that air fleets would be a major factor in this new European war, and that the great cities of each country would be mercilessly bombed immediately hostilities commenced.

Instead, ten days have passed with out either Germany, France or Britain dropping one bomb upon the other’s undefended territory. There apparently is a general understanding that each will hold off unnecessary bombing of civilians, as long as the other does. Great aerial operations and air battles are inevitable: but there is nothing yet to show that aeroplanes will materially affect the course of this war.

ALL this, apparently, indicates that the German leaders planned their moves, for a long way ahead, with thoroughness. We are inclined to congratulate ourselves because Italy is neutral. May it not be that Germany is so confident that she can handle whatever military situation may arise that she insisted on Italian neutrality? Which is more valuable to Germany—a peaceful, in dustrious Italy, supplying food and munitions to Germany, or a dis tracted, war-torn Italy, taking fright ful punishment upon her exposed coasts from the dominant Anglo- French fleets?

The Allies would be fools, indeed, if they imagine that Italy is neutral because she loves them. Italy will be found ranged beside Germany, con fidently anticipating her reward, if the day ever should come when Hitler can present peace terms to the Allies.

THEREFORE, let there be no il lusions. There can be no victory for the Allies without a long war of attrition—a war in which every ounce of material and spiritual strength will be demanded. With Poland al most eliminated, and Russia held in a Pact, Germany’s long frontiers ap pear to be completely protected, ex cept for the 200 miles covered by the Siegfried Line. There she will stand, her foot upon the necks of Poland and Czecho-Slovakia; and she will bargain with the Allies, and release upon the world a terrific flood of pro paganda.

The Allies have a plan, no doubt; but it is difficult to see what they can do, except prepare for long years of war conditions, of ceaseless ham mering at the western front, and of endless propaganda, designed to show that the war is directed against Hitler and Nazi-ism, and not against the German people. The most remark able thing, to date, is the complete, unanimous belief of the British and French people in the justice of their cause, and the quiet, grim way in which they have marched to war.

Without a murmur, they have under taken the job of destroying Hitlerism, and putting an end finally to faith lessness and duplicity in international

relations. For years, civilisation has been living uneasily in the shadow of war. The democracies should have ended it in 1918. This time, they will make no mistake. But there has been not one word of hatred against the German people; not once have we heard the term “Hun” used. Contrast that with 1914!

We cannot guess how or when the Allies will be successful; but at pre sent it appears certain that the war cannot end until Hitlerism has been destroyed. Then, the nations can sit down at a conference table, deal with past and present international injus tices, and make a new and a safer world, based on the sanctity of treaties and mutual trust in men’s promises. There can be no such thing so long as so foul a growth as Nazi-ism can shape international re lationships, (GERMANY, having over-run Poland. * will stand and bargain. Failing in that, she may direct, in the sum mer of 1940, some terrific blows against Britain and France, hoping thus to weaken their “will to war”.

After that—assuming she fails again —we may look for some weakening in the morale of the German people. By then, they may be ready to listen to the Allies’ assurances that the des truction of Hitlerism will mean a peace conference and no punitive terms for Germany.

The Allies must recognise that the 1919 creation (the Versailles Treaty) of their mad-headed politicians was responsible for the Hitler monstrosity; and that they (the Allies) now are paying, in this war, the price of that post-war crime. The pity of it is that it is the blameless lads of this generation who are bleeding and suf fering. instead of the old Lloyd Georges, and Clemenceaus and Billy Hugheses who were responsible for the 1919 lunacy at Versailles. ♦ * * AND what of Japan? It is there that we find the most extra ordinary development of this strange war. A month ago, all British and French communities in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were preparing to fight the Japanese. There seemed no escape from it. The more deeply Britain became involved in Europe, the greater became the Japanese pressure upon British interests in the north-west Pacific. The Japanese, no less than we, believed that, when Britain went to war with Germany, Japan would have her way with our trade and our territories in south east Asia and the Pacific. We were ready to fight: and we had no il lusions about what we were faced with.

That was on August 2L Within 24 hours, the miracle happened. If the Russo-German Pact surprised Britain, it simply stunned Japan. She had had some understanding with Ger many—that is perfectly clear, be cause when the Pact between Ger many and Japan’s ancient, hereditary

and implacable foe was announced, Japan said frankly that she had been “betrayed”. Immediately thereafter, Japan’s militaristic, pro-Nazi Govern ment resigned. A more moderate Ad ministration took charge, and an nounced a re-arrangement of foreign relations, including a more friendly attitude towards Britain.

Japan now is isolated, and keenly is watching world developments, so that her own interests may be advanced.

She definitely is neutral—much more so than Italy—but she will play for her own hand, “in glorious isolation”.

Let it not be thought that the possi bility of Japanese aggression is gone from the Pacific. The imminent dan ger is gone, for the moment, but the menace remains. Japan must ex pand, or perish.

BUT there now is a God-given op portunity to re-establish friendly relations with Japan, and British statesmen dare not neglect it. In stead of fighting Japan, it now should be possible to meet her in confer ence, recognise frankly her vital national needs, and agree that pro vision for her trade and territorial requirements shall be part of the permanent international settlement for which the Allies now are fighting.

We may not forget the brutality of Japan’s attack on China, nor the nature of her 1939 campaign against Britain. But neither can we forget that Japan is an over-crowded, proud and aggressive nation of 90,000,000 people, who must be fed partly from overseas, and that therefore Japan must have overseas markets and larger territories.

The Allies now are fighting in a cause entirely just. They are fight ing for the destruction of Hitlerism— which means freedom to re-arrange international affairs upon a sounder basis and with better guarantees than hitherto have been possible. That re arrangement must provide for the vital needs of all nations, including Japan, Italy and Germany herself.

This may be humanity’s last chance to establish world conditions upon a basis of sanity and justice. The alternatives are too awful to contem plate. One is a Pacific-wide war of extermination, between Europeans and Asiatics. A little wisdom and tolerance, now, on the part of Euro peans and Japanese, may perman ently remove the possibility of that horror.

Here in the Pacific, in the most unexpected manner, we have been removed from the immediate shadow of war. Few realise how terribly close was the holocaust. The least we can do, now, is to use the provi dentially-given opportunity to review the whole situation, and seek a way to permanent peace.

Otherwise, we merely shall move from a crisis in Europe to a crisis in the Pacific. Thousands of educated Japanese believe an Anglo-Japanese war is inevitable. A month ago it seemed inevitable. It is not, now.