Pacific Markets And Politics
pp. 5-6 · Read in the full issue
THERE has not been much change in the tOpra market during the month; but whatever movement there was has been slightly upward.
The market, of course, is still in the grip of international conditions, which induce a fear complex among all oper ators. The constant anxiety regarding a possible European conflagration prevents any man or corporation from taking any risk with future trading; and it seems that that condition must endure so long as the European powers continue to (build up their armaments, and every nation echoes to the tramp of marching men.
That is the general condition which affects all commodities. A particular factor which makes for depressed prices is the continued economic unhappiness of the United States. The buying power of this nation of 130,000,000 people is so great that when it goes out of any market, that market slumps. The operations of no single nation affect the copra market of the world so quickly and directly as those of the Americans. Although the British Empire countries are not feeling it very much, it is a fact that, within the United States, there is to-day a very severe eco nomic depression—many millions of men are unemployed, and huge sums are being provided for relief. All sorts of remedial measures are being tried—including
“pump priming” amounting to no less than four billion dollars of new credits, released among the people; but, as yet, there are only a few signs of a new dawn.
If the nations generally could once be convinced that there is no danger of a great war, the whole world would slip quickly into an era of trading almost without precedent in the history of human affairs. This may come at any time. On the other hand, there may be conflagra tion, in which almost everything in the way of economic and social structures will go into ruin.
In the meantime, producers should be patient, and watch the signs and portents of international affairs. It is impossible to believe that the present tension can last much longer.
The June review of Messrs. Faure & Co., of London, received by airmail, says that there are some signs of recovery and quotes the following comparative figures showing commodities quotations: —
The delicacy of international relation ships in the Pacific is marked, but goes unnoticed, because of the more ugly situation in Europe. Japan is becoming ever more deeply involved in China and, as her military and economic problems grow, her bad temper increases, and she is baring her teeth at an unfriendly Russia, in the north, and the very alert and watchful forces of Britain, France and Holland, in the south.
Over in the north-east, around Hawaii, the United States has gathered a fleet of enormous strength—ls great battle ships, 17 heavy cruisers, 13 light cruisers, 5 huge aircraft carriers (carrying some 400 planes), 120 destroyers (with another 80 in reserve) and over 50 submarines.
This mighty fleet is 90 per cent, modern; and one asks why it is in the Pacific Ocean, if not as an invitation to Japan to stay at home. U.S.A., of course, has her problems. Because Japanese com mercial penetratrion of the Philippines has been so rapid in recent years, and because it now is recognised that to give the Philippines complete independence in 1946 will mean simply making a pre sent of the group to this new and aggres sive Japan, both Americans and Filipinos now are clamouring for the postponement of the independence plan—nominally until 1960; but actually, indefinitely.
Japan, meanwhile, is carrying on in the Philippines a propaganda campaign, de signed to influence the Filipinos, on
March May Juna 10 30 27 Wheat .. .. 7/3 5/8 6/6 y a Cotton 4.99 4.25 . 4.72 Tin £186 £161 £190 Copper .. .. £40 £33 £38 Rubber 7d. 5%d. 6 15/16d.
Cocoa .. . . .. 30/- 18/6 22/9 Copra .. £12/12/6 £ 10/16/3 '£11/6/ Linseed oil . £26/12/6 £21/5/ £23/12/6 Groundnuts .. £10/11/3 £9/17/6 £10/11/3
racial and cultural grounds* against America and in favour of Japan. Further more, although half of the 150,000 Japan ese in Hawaii were born there, and are nominally American, the whole com munity regards itself as a colony of Japan and. as is well-known, it would fight for Japan against America.
South of the equator, British, French and natives live in complete harmony, but with a feeling, uneasy and growing, that their security and future are threat ened by the conditions in the north.