Rabaul To Be Abandoned

Confronted with Experts' Report, Australian Government Seeks New Administrative Centre in New Guinea

‘TIT’E can see no reason whatever for ** believing that volcanic activity may not recur here at almost any time.

“As shown above, the possibility that such outbreaks may occur closer to, or even within the limits of, the town (as, for instance, at Sulphur Creek) cannot be eliminated.

“We are, therefore, forced to the con clusion that reasonably early evacuation of Rabaul as the main administrative centre of the territory must be seriously considered. The maintenance of Rabaul [ as a commercial centre is beyond the scope of this enquiry.”

It was in these most definite terms that the experts commissioned by the Commonwealth Government (Dr. C. E.

Stehn, Director of the Netherlands Indies Vulcanological Survey, and Dr. W. G.

Woolnough, Geological adviser to the Commonwealth Government) reported at the end of November. The report, a docu ment of over 80 foolscap pages, showed that there was no doubt whatever in the minds of the experts. The town of Rabaul is built upon dangerous ground and there is an ever-present danger that it will be blown up.

The experts did their work thoroughly.

They gathered together all available evi dence relating to volcanic activity at the eastern end of New Britain since Euro peans first entered the area. They sub mitted the whole district to a close geolo gical survey, thus gathering data from which they were able to make certain important deductions; and they collected all the evidence relating to the recent eruption—especially the manner in which the first signs of unusual volcanic acti vity appeared, and the way in which the volcanic outburst developed.

As a result of this close investigation, they were able to say positively: 1. At one time, ages ago, there was a volcanic cone, perhaps 10,000 feet high, on the place now occupied by Simpson Harbour. This had been built up by vol canic activity and it was surrounded by small active craters. 2. There came a time, also ages ago, when a tremendous explosion occurred, as the result of which most of this cone was scattered far and wide over the ad jacent country. 3. As a result of the bursting of this mountain cone and of erosion continued during long ages, the sea entered the site of the former mountain and volcano, and thus formed the almost land-locked harbour now known as Simpson Harbour, or Rabaul Harbour.

A Despite the entrv of the sea, volcanic activity continued all over this area, and continued un to the present time. 5. All down the ages, at irregular inter vals. there have been violent volcanic out bursts in this area; and although there are indmatlons that the region is cooling these outbursts are likely to recur at any time, for perhaps thousands of years to come. 6. The experts, from their experience of similar conditions elsewhere, looked for and found certain lines of weakness, or cracks in the earth’s surface, affecting the area between Vulcan volcano and Matupi volcano, immediately south of Rabaul. They renorted that, volcanic eruntions are likely to backwards and forwards, aToner lines of weak

ness, and under certain circumstances they might quite easily occur in Rabaul itself. 7. One serious line of weakness, run ning across the harbour between Vulcan Island and Matupi Volcano, is revealed, and suggests that the development of one or more new submarine vulcanoes in the bottom of the harbour is by no means impossible. “A major outburst of this type would, of course, completely eliminate Rabaul as a sea-port, even if the population and town escaped anni hilation,” says the report. 8. “By an extraordinary set of coinci dences which can scarcely be expected to be repeated in future eruptions, the first effects and the maximum effects of the outbreak missed the town of Rabaul almost entirely. Had the first and most v olent phases of the eruption occurred at Matupi or Balanakaia crater, or Sul phur Ck. crater, instead of at Vulcan Is., a.s might easily have been the case, noth ing short of a major disaster could have followed.” 8. In discussing the necessity for the abandonment of Rabaul, the experts noint out that, while the money already invested in Rabaul represents a serious consideration, a still more serious possi bility is that it might be jeopardised or wiped out of existence in a few hours by another and more serious eruption.

The opportunity is now presented of sav ing at least a portion of this invested capital. They point out, though public and private buildings in Rabaul possess considerable monetary value and are quite suitable for existing conditions, there are only some half dozen places in the town of superior architectural pre tentions or of great permanence. “We are of opinion that the risks involved in the maintenance and extension of the town are incomparably greater than the im mediate loss inseparable from early abandonment.” 9. The experts do not recommend anv hasty or ill-considered action. “Though it is impossible to predict the duration of the present period of nuiescence. it is not unreasonable to anticipate that there is likely to be a respite allowed.” Thev recommend that all the aspects involved in the selection of a new capital, should be considered deliberately, but without delay. 10. They recommend that if there is to be continued settlement at Rabaul—thev evidently are thinking of a port and com mercial distributing centre—there should be a well-organised and eouipped vul canological observatory at Rabaul, cap able of providing warnings of impending eruptions; so as to give the population a chance to be removed to places pf safety.

Danger At Rapindik

The experts appear to take a serious view of the volcano situated near Ra pindik, close to the southern boundary of Rabaul. This consists of two cones, Palangiani (1,389 feet) and Balanakaia (about 400 feet); and the Health Depart ment laboratory, Rapindik native hospi tal, native labour quarters and various

official residence are built between this latter crater and Matupi bay (which is itself a volcanic crater). The experts say that “the Balanakaia crater cannot be regarded as extinct”; and, again, “the situation of Rapindik is a source of great danger—the whole of the buildings at this point should be removed at the ear liest possible moment.” They add: “Matupi Island should be evacuated forthwith and the poulation removed to the north or east coast.”

Evacuation Plans

The experts also have outlined a plan sc that, should a serious eruption de velop, the populace may be immediately warned and removed quickly. It is sug gested that “mobilisation details should be prepared at once,” and that “skeleton organisations or refuge camps, provi sions, water supply, sanitary facilities and food supplies” should be main tained at Kokopo, and to the north and east of the town, where effective motor roads should be kept constantly available.

“Owing to the high probability of tidal waves, possibly of great severity, no re

fuge camp should be established close to the sea-shore.’’

The experts then set out 14 signs, any one oft which should be taken as an In dication of the probability of the develop ment of volcanic activity.