What Will Happen If Japan Over-Runs China?
pp. 5-6 · Read in the full issue
TO a degree that few of them realise, residents in the Pacific territories are affected by what is happening just now on the China coast.
Japan is throwing her whole weight against China. She will, of course, beat China, in a military sense—although the Chinese, in view of their lack of heavy artillery and aircraft, are offering a sur prising resistance; and if, eventually, she gets control of China, then the Pacific territories had better look to their gun powder. A Japan supreme in Eastern Asia will not remain in Eastern Asia.
But it is by no means certain, even if she lands huge armies in China, and occupies large areas, that Japan will have command of China. Britain has £200,000,000 invested in China; and American and French interests are very large. The purchase of manufactured goods and foodstuffs by China represents a large and valuable market for all the nations. Sooner or Igter, if Japan were in control of China, China would be closed to European investment and trade.
Nothing has been said: but it is be yond any doubt that Japan’s unprovoked attack on China is now the subject of the gravest debates behind the closed doors of the Chancelleries of Europe and America. The European powers dare not
let Japan over-run China, as she over ran Manchukuo.
There is the ethical consideration. How can civilisation stand by, inactive, while an independent nation is assassinated?
It happened in Manchukuo and Abyssinia, but will it happen again? There is the consideration of international safety. A Japan, triumphant in China, most cer tainly will attempt to dominate other Pacific countries. And there is the selfish consideration. Other nations cannot re main indifferent while Japan, without a semblance of right, destroys their huge investments and trade interests in China.
But, what to do? If the democratic Western Powers (Britain, United States, and France) intervene, what will happen? One of two things. Either Japan will be forced to stay her hand, and limit her campaign to about the dimensions of 1932 and content herself, for the moment, by grabbing the northern dis tricts around Peiping; or she will invoke the help of Germany, and perhaps, Italy.
It is that latter possibility which causes the democratic powers apparently to quail and quibble. One of the shrewdest comments on international affairs heard in recent years was this: “There will be no wars between European nations, be cause they all realise that, under modern
conditions, they both must lose, no mat ter who wins. But, inevitably, there will be war between social or political systems.” There seems to be developing a struggle between Democracy, as seen in Britain, France, and United States, and Fascism, as seen in Germany, Italy and, now, Japan. For it must be clearly understood —and this is the crux of the Sino-Japanese problem that Japan, in recent months, has surrendered herself completely to the dictation of the Mili tary Party, and the latter are establish ing what is virtually Fascist government in the place of whatever semblance of democratic government Japan once pos sessed. Already, Germany is linked with Japan by treaty, and if Germany must ally herself with Japan in a possibility of war, she will try to take Italy with her, and probably will succeed.
On the one side, we have Britain, France, and the United States, richly endowed with territory, democratic in government, and naturally eager to pre serve the status quo. On the other side,
Germany, Italy, and Japan, all desperate
ly overcrowded, all demanding new ter
ritory for colonisation, all imbued with the spirit of war, and all dominated by the idea of the totalitarian state (Fascism). Is it surprising that the Franco-American-British policy in China seems curiously weak and hesitant?
In this situation, there are two uncer tain factors the United States, and
Russia. The Americans are quite safe, at home; and they do not wish to become involved again in any European struggle.
But, against that, there are two things concerning which American public opin ion will not remain indifferent. One is the rape of China, as now planned by Jo pan; and the other is any alteration in the Pacific status quo.
Russia is the traditional enemy of Japan; and, if the Communist Govern ment were half as strong, in a military and naval sense, as it is reputed to be, Russia probably would have gone to the assistance of China* But the fact is that Russia has murdered most of her mili tary leaders: and, in any event, Russian armies could not effectively fight the Japanese at the end of four thousand miles of Siberian railway. Russian planes from around Vladivostock, however, could do a lot of damage in Japan.
France has an alliance with Russia; but Britain, emphatically, does not wish to be associated with the Soviet nation in any enterprise.
The foregoing outlines as pretty an international problem as the Pacific has ever seen. No one can see the end of it.
But this is certain: If Japan is allowed “to get away with it,” there will be very little safety in future for Europeans in the Pacific territories.
Indications, at the moment, are that Japan will not be interfered with, for the present. Economic conditions in Japan are far from happy; the Chinese are putting up a strong resistance; and it may be good policy to let Japan become deeply involved, and expend her force, before any attempt is made to deal with a very difficult situation.