Copra’S Future

A New Note of Optimism

WE find, in “Review of the Oil and Fat markets, 1934,” issued by Messrs.

Faure, Blattmann and Co., London, a note of optimism that had been missing, for some years, from this most valuable an nual compilation.

This is how the cautious editor summed up his conclusions, at the end of a very careful review of the world markets and prospects, as on 31st December, 1934: “We did not commit ourselves in our last Review to any forecast as to the future movement of prices, as the position at the end of 1933 was still too unclear.

“To-day we are faced with a definite world shortage of Oils and Fats avail able for consumption, spread over all the principal oil-producing materials, and which a year ago would have seemed impossible.

“All indications point to the full ef fect of this shortage, especially the shortage in the United States, not yet having been felt; and, even if Ger many should have to reduce her con-

The copra market is moving steadily upward. This is what has happened to the London c.i.f. quotation since we went to press in April:

sumption of Oils and Fats very con siderably, as a result of her lack of foreign exchange, a still higher price level seems to be inevitable.

“In other words, we may safely as sume that we have now reached a turning point where we must look up on the abnormally low level of prices for Oils and Fats to which we have been accustomed for a number of years, as a thing of the past.”

The “Review” deals seriatim with the world position of copra and of the var ious commodities which compete in some degree with coconut oil. The following are its conclusions: Lard: Owing to the American drought production has decreased 23 per cent.

Olive Oil: The 1933-34 crop showed a reduction, and the 1934-35 crop, owing to unfavourable weather, will be smaller still.

Linseed Oil: North American crops again very small, but shortage offset by large Argentine crop. 1935 supplies will be slightly larger than 1934, but appre ciable increase in consumption expected.

Cotton Oil: Owing to American crop re strictions, combined with drought, a con siderable shortage is expected, to become manifest in the latter part of 1935.

Peanuts: Supplies in sight for 1935 are the smallest for many years. Indian crop probably will be down 40 per cent.

Whale Oil: The 1933-34 catch has been completely disposed of, and the 1934-35 catch, owing to late start and unfavour able conditions, is expected (for the

first time for many years) to be less than estimated.

Copra: Such reports as are to hand from producing countries indicate smaller supplies this year than usual. Typhoons suffered by the Philippines during the latter part of 1934 are reported to have seriously damaged the trees, ruining the young nuts. Low prices during the last year or two have necessitated economies on the plantations, with a result that a good many of the copra gardens are suf fering from neglect which will reduce the crops. However, it must not be over looked that there is always a hidden re serve for export in the quantity con sumed locally, and higher prices will draw upon what in the ordinary way would be domestic supplies.

South Seas Sundried.

Rabaul Hot-air-Dried April 19 . . . £10 15 0 .. £11 17 6 26 . . . . 11 5 0 12 7 6 May 3 11 17 6 12 12 6 10 . . . . 12 2 6 12 17 6 17 . . . . 12 0 0 12 12 6