New World Policy Affects The Pacific

Territories

THE World Economic Conference has failed. Internationalism (which is the plan of dealing co operatively with conditions common to all nations) has been put aside as impracticable. Nationalism (which means every nation for itself, and devil take the hindmost) has become the dominating policy of the world Events of terrific, far-reaching significance are taking place, almost daily. More than half the Great Powers already are under dic tatorships—Germany, Italy, United States, Russia, in particular. Alone among the Great Powers, Britain and France retain the spirit, as well as the form, of government by the people.

In the past three months, there have been swift developments. The devil’s cauldron is boiling up in Central Europe, where the Versailles legacy of territorial in

equalities, racial jealousies and national bitterness is creating a situation which almost certainly will mean war. In the United States, a

dictatorship of desperately-driven

politicians has thrown 120 millions of people into a critical economic and social experiment, which may succeed—but which is more likely to throw the world’s economic structure into chaos. Great Britain, recognising at last the frightful dangers with which she is encom passed, is entering energetically upon the task of re-establishing her naval strength.

All the nations are revising their national policies in relation to foreign affairs. A new orientation is taking shape rapidly. There is much danger of war; but, if there is. no war, it is clear that whatever measure of economic rehabilita tion takes place—if any—will be

achieved on national, and not on international lines. In other words, each nation will deal independently with whatever amount of economic sickness (unemployment, lack of in dustrial balance, political unrest) it finds within its own borders; and each will piously leave on the knees of the high gods the adjustment of the international economic condi tions which now are so disastrously out of gear. The one outstanding international factor which requires attention and which, without attention, renders general economic recovery on nationalist lines prac tically impossible —is war-debts and reparations. For weeks past, the “statesmen’ ’ of the Powers have uttered not one word on this all important subject. It is a mad and hopeless world.

So much for the general position.

Now look at it so far as it affects the

Pacific Territories, and the nations bordering the Pacific. It is not a cheery prospect.

Economically, the immediate out look is clear enough, and the truth may be stated brutally. There is little promise, anywhere, of an early improvement in commodity prices— except, perhaps, gold. Copra, rub ber, sugar, coffee—there can be no increase in values until the world gets over its economic and political troubles, and restores communal purchasing power. There is no in dication of when that will be, under present conditions. Now that inter nationalism has failed, it seems that the only development which might quickly end the impasse and revivify world markets would be what a London writer cynically calls “a thumping good war.”

Politically, the peoples of the Pacific Territories are faced with a prospect of vast uncertainty. In the immediate foreground, there is Germany’s demand for the re turn of her ‘‘colonies.” Looming ominously in the background is the shadow of Japan.

Many months ago, in these columns, it was forecast that the League of Nations would disin tegrate, that the system of Man dates would disappear, and that a crescendo of sword-rattling would accompany Germany’s argument that the restoration of her colonies is necessary to her future economic life. The events of the past ten weeks have brought that situation nearer very much more quickly than we anticipated. The Hitler dic tatorship has reproduced the old, aggressive Prussian spirit of Ger many ; the League of Nations, although it retains its sorry edifice in Geneva, already is moribund and, as an international force, is dead; and scarcely a day passes, now, when we do not hear the sullen growl of Germany’s demand for her colonies.

Already, in conferences and re views, British publicists are discuss ing the “justice” of Germany’s argument that colonies are neces sary for her economic life. Some thing is going to be done, eventually.

Probably, it will take the form of the restoration to Germany of a large area in Africa, where she may produce necessary tropical food stuffs and raw materials. It appears

very unlikely that New Guinea, Samoa or the Marshall and Caroline Islands will be taken from their respective Mandatories.

In the years before 1914, we of the South Seas were rendered un comfortable by three German traits —the Germans’ national aggressive ness, their power of efficient coloni sation, and the readiness with which they flooded every market with cheaply manufactured goods. The Germans are gone; but in the Pacific there is now another nation with precisely the same disturbing characteristics —Japan. The Jap anese come, not as the Germans came, seeking among new lands for colonial equality with other Euro pean nations; they come, instead, claiming a prior right, on ethno logical and geographical grounds, to the undeveloped territories of the Pacific. They are not so aggressive as the Germans, but they are more confident in their advance. There is a sort of deadly sureness in the way in which they are spreading across the Pacific.

Seventy years ago, there were Japanese only in Japan. To-day, the Japanese flag waves over For mosa, Korea, Marshall and Caroline Islands, and Manchuria (for Man chukuo is Japanese, in everything but name). Great Japanese colonies have been established in Philippines, Hawaii and California, under the American flag, and in Mexico and South America; and it is only in the nature of things that they presently will demand a closer re lationship with their mother country.

Also, it is inevitable that the Japanese, in emigrant ships and trading vessels, will turn south wards. The result is likely to be tragedy.

Consider the situation of this desperately crowded nation. To day, as for many years past, the population is increasing by a million annually. The people now cannot feed themselves: they must import foodstuffs. To buy foreign food stuffs, they must export manufac tured goods. Therefore, by force of circumstances, Japan has become a great manufacturing country.

Japan, in consequence, must have foreign markets. A world of mad headed nationalism is hurriedly erecting tariff barriers against Jap

anese goods. Japan is seeking new lands for her surplus population— and finds every territory, even to the coral islands in that Pacific from which she sprang, closed against her nationals. Japan is arming—in deed, is already armed to the teeth.

Is it any wonder! Slowly, inevit ably, driven by conditions and cir cumstances which they cannot con trol, the Japanese are moving south wards. To-day, they are all across the North Pacific. To-morrow, they will be in the South Pacific —if they are not already there. There has been some strange knocking, lately, at the back-doors of the South Pacific territories.

Early in 1933, strange Japanese ships were reported in Torres Straits. Since then, reports of numerous vessels, identified as Jap anese, and of great speed, and en gaged apparently on mysterious business, have been received from Bougainville (New Guinea), various Solomon Islands, Ellice Islands, New Hebrides and Northern Fiji.

These queer, shy, elusive vessels are shell-fishers, more or less, engaged in poaching; but, collating the various reports, we have not the least doubt that the little ships are engaged also in a form of recon naissance and are gathering material for an accurate and detailed map of all these Pacific waters.

This opinion is not over-coloured.

The facts are tod plain. Great natural laws operate to-day, as they did in the beginning. Over crowded nations must have more room. If they are opposed by other nations, they will fight.

Already, Japan is seeking an open door into New Guinea. It may as well be disclosed that, not long ago, a Japanese shipping company sought, in New Guinea, the same privileges as are accorded the Ger man company, which now runs the Friederun and Bremerhaven be tween N.G. Territory ports and Hongkong. The Australian Admin istration thereby was placed in a position of peculiar difficulty.

Hitherto, it has resisted demands for the curtailment of German ship ping activities on the ground that a Mandated Territory should not be a close preserve for the Mandatory Power. But the Japanese applica tion has opened up very awkward

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possibilities; particularly as Japan, herself, has made her Mandated Territory (Marshall and Caroline Islands) a preserve. New Guinea is a valuable and growing market for Australian products. But, in recent years, German goods have invaded New Guinea; and now there is a likelihood of Japanese products also coming in, just as they have recently captured markets in New Hebrides and New Caledonia.

Australia, in a world of aggres sive nationalism, must do as all the other nations are doing, and close the doors in New Guinea. But it only brings nearer the day of con flict with Japan.