Products Of The South Seas

The Fluctuating Price of Copra

THE opinion expressed a month ago that copra prices had fallen as low as was possible for them to go, and that some slight recovery might be looked for, was borne out during recent weeks, when the price quite suddenly came back to between £16 and £17 per ton, at the beginning of November. It did not remain there, however—but has slip ped back .again in the past fortnight to the Vicinity of £15/7/6 and £15/10/- per ton.

If, in attempting to forecast the copra market, one had to consider only copra, the proposition would be comparatively simple.

We could say that the law of supply and demand would operate, and that, if the price had fallen to unprofitable levels, there would be a falling-off in supply, and an inevitable rise in prices. The decrease in supply, as a matter of fact, has happened. Most interest ing figures published elsewhere in this issue show that shipments of copra from all ports between January and August last fell very substantially and, in ordinary circumstances this shrinkage in supply would inevitably mean increased quotations.

But, as has been repeatedly explained, the whole position remains complicated by the enormous production of commodities which

may be used as an alternative to coconut oil—whale oil, soya bean oil, palm kernel oil, etc. Of these, undoubtedly, the one which is causing the greatest disturbance to the copra market is whale oil. All the available evi dence goes to show that the activities of the Norwegians in the Antarctic continue to bring whale oil into the market in huge quantities, and this is a continuously depressing factor so far as copra is concerned. Two conditions however, militate against the whale oil indus try. One is the reduced price which, of course, must discourage whaling enterprise. The other is the fact that the nations of the world are becoming seriously alarmed by the enormous slaughter of whales in the Antarctic and, sooner or later, this industry will be restricted.

The signs show an inclination on the part of copra prices to rise. If it were not for the factors indicated above, we might expect a definite recovery of prices. We feel certain, taking all things into consideration, that copra eventually will come back and stabilise at a price that, while representing nothing phe nomenal in the way of profits, will be accept able. But it would be over-optimistic to sug gest that the price will recover quickly. The probabilities are that it will flutter around its present mark for several months to come.