Australia eyed as core of UN presence in Timor

Development

THE United Nations, which delayed to August 30 the vote on East Timor’s future, is expected to ask Australia to form the core of an armed UN peace keeping force if the territory votes for independence from Indonesia.

The UN delayed the vote amid con cerns that the security situation in East Timor was not conducive to a free and fair ballot. Originally, the plebiscite was scheduled for August 8, and was later changed to August 21 or 22.

As the East Timor vote neared, Aus tralia put in place contingency plans in line with on-the-ground assessments that the most likely outcome is independence.

Likewise, leaked documents indicate that Indonesian-supported paramilitaries could resort to a ‘scorched-earth’ policy when withdrawing to neighbouring West Timor.

“The majority of observers think that the vote would be in favour of indepen dence, though you cannot rule out the intimidation and violent tactics carried out by the militia for the past three months might have eroded the vote somewhat,” said Alan Dupont, director at the Aus tralian National University’s Strategic and Defense Studies Centre in Canberra.

“But most people would still expect the result to be in favour of indepen dence,” Dupont said.

“After the ballot and if the situation changes, Indonesia no longer has jurisdic tion over East Timor - so that is the time the UN force becomes critical because you’ll need to maintain security in a fairly lengthy transition period before a new East Timor government comes into play,”

added Dupont.

Also of concern to Dupont is the hiatus of at least two months before the new Indonesian People’s Consultative Assem bly votes to formally cut ties with East Timor, if the independence vote gets car ried.

“Most of the focus now is on what hap pens after the August 30 ballot and there

are two problem areas here,” Dupont con tinued.

“There is a two-month period after the ballot before the Indonesian parliament votes on the result, and the first question to be asked is who’s going to be responsible for security during that difficult period, assuming that the vote goes in favour of independence.”

According to a secret Indonesian gov ernment report leaked recently, there is a strong likelihood that a sharp increase in violence will accompany a result favour

ing independence.

The document dated July 3 and signed by H R Gamadi, special assistant to Gen eral Feisal Tandjung, coordinating minister of politics and security, calls on the Indonesian govern ment to confirm its commitment to the militias by “empowering the pro-integra tion forces.”

The document calls on Jakarta to pre pare West Timor for a huge influx of pro integrationists and their supporters, and instructs the paramilitaries to destroy vital facilities during their withdrawal.

In August, the Australian media, quot ing diplomatic and church sources, warned that 400 to 500 assault rifles, grenades and mortars are being held in various Kodim (Indonesian military district command) posts along the West Timor frontier, ready to be handed out to the militias.

The Melbourne-based ‘Age’ daily reported that Australian Army First Brigade - a 2,800 strong, readily deploy able unit based in Darwin - would con tribute heavily to a UN deployment in East Timor.

Quoting Australian defence sources, the ‘Age’ also reported while the United States, Britain, Portugal and other European Union countries may have logistic input into any UN military operation, it has been made clear to Australia these countries would be unable - or unwilling - to contribute troops.

Last month, Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer visited East Timor - the

first visit ever by an Australian cabinet minister.

Canberra hopes the visit will improve bilateral ties with Indonesia, free of the stigma of East Timor, after a permanent political solution is found through the August 30 vote.

Activists want Downer to be more pro active with regard to the troubled territo ry- “We call on Downer to ensure that Australia offers to the UN troops that will go in before the poll,” urged Bob Wesley- Smith of Australians for a Free East Timor.

Wesley-Smith said it will be too late to go in if Indonesia-sponsored militia vio lence breaks out in a massive way before the arrival of the troops.

“Strategically it would pose a big headache with the huge loss of innocent Timorese lives,” he said.

Hours before the UN announced a delay, Nobel laureate and East Timorese leader Jose Ramos Horta said in Manila: “The conditions simply do not exist for a truly genuine, democratic ballot to take place.”

“It would be a total fraud, a fraud against the people of East Timor and the international community,” he said.

The Dili-based Yayasan Hak (Founda tion for Legal and Human R'ghts) noted in a report that while securit/ in the capi tal had improved in recent months, “in remote areas terror and intimidation still persist.”

“Violence committed by the Indone sian military, police, local government officials and militia has forced tens of thousands of people to leave their vil lages,” said the Hak report.

“In several areas, the local population who were terrorised and intimidated, fled to the mountains or forest areas.”

The UN secretary general Kofi Annan himself said “intimidation by armed mili tia groups remains particularly prevalent in the western districts of East Timor.”

(Ips) ■