First of the Season

Hurricanes

Ahead

FIRST tropical depression of the 1956-57 hurricane season appeared on the South Pacific tropical weather chart at 0600 GMT, November 15, centred just west of the southern New Hebrides.

Not yet a hurricane, the central pressure was given as 997 millibars (29.44 inches) and winds of only up to 30 knots within 150 miles in the south and east quadrants.

The depression next morning was almost stationary. Forecast move ment was south-south-east into open waters, so there seemed little likelihood of any damage if the system “deepened,” as it probably would.

A trough of low pressure next morning extended from the de pression, which was then centred at 211 South, 170 East, eastwards across Fiji, giving a belt of un settled weather.

There is a school of meteorological thought which links the frequency and severity of tropical hurricanes with sunspot activity, and this theory may be put to the test this summer.

According to the monthly data broadcast from Zurich Observatory, Switzerland, the IU-year sunspot cycle, which should have reached Its maximum early 1958, is, for

reasons unknown, running ahead of schedule and the sunspot peak is now predicted for next January.

The predicted daily averages are November, 173; December, 176; and January 177, with only a very slight decline during the subsequent three months. Generally speaking, the daily number of sunspots has been higher than predicted by the

“boffins” over the past six mon though there was a decline in] October average.

However, judging by the colU of high-frequency radio recen conditions through mid-Noven —caused by sunspots—indicatj were that the October decline be fully made up in the succeej month.