[?]Arnings

[?]w Developments.

[?]Arlier Hurricane

[?]Re Now Possible

lARLIER hurricane warnings are

I possible, says Mr. J. C. Grover, lior Geologist, BSIP, in a paper n before the July meeting of the psh Solomon Islands Society at

piara.

n July, 1952, (p. 95) PIM re tted the existing meteorological brting and forecasting organisa i in the South Pacific, discussed le of the difficulties, financial [ technical, associated with lier hurricane forecasting, and e details of a system which ted like becoming of great im kance to this region, his system depended upon feroseisms” or faint shock-waves ismitted through sea and land the result of the violent dis tances caused by the spiralling ricanes. ist as the epicentre of an earth- Ite can be accurately determined group of widely spaced seismic

stations, so can a hurricane’s centre be determined, though by more sensitive equipment.

Those associated with the microseismic hurricane locating system were convinced three years ago that it was the answer to the

problem of a reasonably inexpensive, accurate, tracking system. However, as PIM said in the 1952 article, South Pacific meteorologists were less enthusiastic.

DR. GABITES, head of the Re search Section of the New Zea land Meteorological Service, which mans most of the South Pacific “met” stations, said that after making world-wide on-the spot investigations, he was satis fied that the microseismologists could not do all they claimed.

Some intense storms could be accurately “fixed,” but calculations were often far from correct with milder hurricanes or for other un explained reasons.

Dr. Gabites agreed that the system could be a useful adjunct to existing methods in the South Pacific, but considered it would be disproportionately expensive in equipment, manpower, and main tenance.

Mr. Grover seems to show that what was true three years ago is no longer true.

Much further research has been done, explanations of former in accuracies discovered, and new techniques worked out which place the microseismic system of early and accurate hurricane location in

Mr. A. L. Burrows, director of the Apia observatory, peers into a theodolite as he tracks a balloon to determine upper air movements— one of the operations in present Pacific hurri cane forecasting techniques. Expensive radar stations have replaced some theodolites—but inexpensive microseismic stations may supersede radar, as this article explains. —Photo by Jack Thornton.

advance of all others with the sible exception of actual locatioc aircraft —an extremely expei; alternative.

All will agree that any sy* which can accurately locate keep constant track of a hurri' from a point not less than 60 700 miles away is a system w seriously examining.

Hurricanes in the islands < rarely move forward at sh greater than 25 knots, often at about 15 knots.

The direction of movement hurricane cannot yet be predfc by any system, but the cee knowledge of a hurricane’s exist* at a point 600 miles away w give 24 to 48 hours’ warning of' sible danger.

If the microseismologists can with complete confidence the tion of a hurricane at 600 miles* ance —and Dr. Grover implies they can—it is certainly a good! more than can be done in South Pacific areas under the e ing techniques.

Though a fair degree of adv is at present possible in mosi* habited areas, damage may result from public lack of confio. in predictions and failure to < action where action is possible— as in the fastening down of : preparation of safe refugee time, etc.

Mr. Grover’s paper is too lox cover in detail, but there is a s sibility that it may be publishw the South Pacific Commissions HE suggests that a minimut five stations might be callee at Townsville, Samarai, Hon Vila, Noumea, and Nadi (andt ferably two more at, say, Apis; Rarotonga, to cover the d:f area).

The equipment could be insg at the existing meteoroid stations at these places. Any a meteorological observer coull trained in its operation, bur ordination of reports would cas one central skilled geophysii; possibly at Nadi weather centi The US Navy already has sts; in existence at Guam, Manilas in Japan.

Mr. Grover suggests a five microseismic research project sponsored by the South H Commission.

The equipment would cost o few thousand pounds. Gn expense in the initial stage wovt in calibrating the respective irj ments in the light of passing I cane effects. Once calibrate©; stations would be accurate fd time. This task would call fo co-operation of shipping, aiii existing meteorological obses stations, and perhaps a fern 1 observing stations.

In the light of Mr. Grover’sr ence from many quoted source;

toders why the Queensland Gov hment is at present erecting at asiderable cost a system of hurri ne-predicting radar stations which ve a range of only about 150 lies, despite the fact that a very fccessful experimental micro temic station has been in opera n at the Queensland University der Dr. Owen Jones for some irs. The explanation may be that I radar stations will provide kctions of a navigational and jitary nature additional to hurri le location duties.

I considerable amount of road bnsion and improvement work I been carried out at Mangaia, )k Group, in recent months to in up valuable agricultural land, k Island Council’s tractor and Ider has saved much manual our. apeete’s popular dine-and-dance jblishment, Au Col Bleu, re igned and redecorated, was re ned on September 3. It has a [restaurant under control of M. [Azibert, with meals served kughout the day.