Prospects
p. 61 · Read in the full issue
World Market Prospects For Pacific Crops
IN a summary of present and future world markets for Pacific crops, the South Pacific Com mission Bulletin for April made the following points:— COPRA: This year should see in creased supplies 'which could have a depressing effect on prices. Con ditions in USA might also cause a reduction in demand despite ex pansion elsewhere. Producers in British territories were given, retro spective to January 1, 1954, an in crease of lh per cent, by the British Ministry of Food. In April, the free market price was about £lO per ton higher than the MOF price (£7O), but it later declined and continu ance of the wide disparity between the prices appeared unlikely.
COCOA: Main reasons for the boom prices appear to be poor crops in Nigeria and the Gold Coast at a time when stocks were low, con sumption increasing, plus insufficient replanting since the disastrous prices of the early Thirties. The shortage is likely to last another five years and prices should remain good, although present boom prices are not likely to last indefinitely be cause they will tend to reduce effec tive demand and encourage sub stitutes.
COFFEE: Prices rose from 55 cents to more than 90 cents a pound on the New York market in the year ending April, 1954. There is evid ence of a genuine current shortage due to a bad season in Brazil this year and a general higher demand since the war. Producers appear to be in a favourable position for at least two or three years. Prospects not clear beyond that because of evidence that acreage has increased in last year or two.
RUBBER: Probably the most de pressed commodity on the market.
London spot price of 17d a pound for No. 1 RSS in April was an in crease of about 80 per cent, on pre war compared with an increase of 150 per cent, for raw materials in general Major reason is the pro duction of synthetic rubber, now more than half that of natural rubber. But there, are signs of im provement. USA industry is using more natural rubber because of the lower price, and production of synthetic has fallen. A further serious fall in prices is not likely.
FRESH FRUITS: Demand in New Zealand for bananas, P apples, oranges and tomatcDes ex ceeds supply, even though imports of bananas and oranges were re last year. NZ incomes are likely to be 10 per cent, higher this year, and demand should continue.
TOUSA etSeXPeCtedtobeSound SUMMARY : The outlook for all SH£ main P weakness £ producers who must rely on the free market But, in the longer view, it seems Col ?di tlo n s ar ? getting back to normal. One of the consequences will be fluctuating prices and, in some Cases, a fall over a period. This does not mean that a slump is coming on anything like the scale of the early Thirties, but from now On, Calculated boldness will pay better than the previously successful spirit of rash overconfidence.