[?]Opra Price

Next Year

[?]tes Should be Maintained

IHERE is nothing in the present outlook to indicate any marked alteration next year in the ice of copra to be paid for the pro ct of Papua-New Guinea, British lomon Islands, Fiji, Gilbert and ice Islands, Tonga, Western moa and Cook Is., under the 9ars Contract made in 1949 by the Itish Ministry of Pood.

Jnder that contract, a price was ed which could not be varied, up down, by more than 10 per cent, any one year. Since then the ce for Papua-New Guinea copra •ices in the other British South

fific countries are approximately

■ same) have been as follows:

P-Ng Copra Prices. 1949-53

n the following table, “MOF price” is amount paid in Sterling by the MOF, I Territory ports, to the P-NG Copra keting Board.” “Planters Rec’d.” is amount planters received in Aus ian currency for hot-air dried copra i the CMB. The difference in the res (Australian currency is 25 per under Stg.) being deductions ight, stabilisation fund collections, made by the Board. Until 1952, ? prices for P-NG were adjusted in ch instead of in January as in the of the Pacific Territories.)

he world market price in 1952 wed a falling tendency for a le, and it was anticipated that re would be a 10 per cent, fall for J. Fortunately for the South

Pacific, however, the world market recovered in the later months of 1952, and the price was maintained in the 1953 period. As a result of this and increased production in many places, the South Pacific countries generally in 1953 have benefitted by millions of pounds.

There have been some slight fluc tuations in the world market during 1953 but the market has been firm in recent weeks and shows every indication of remaining firm until the end of December, when the var ious South Pacific territories will proceed to negotiate with the Brit ish MOF, to fix the price for 1954.

Last year, the MOF fought hard for the 10 per cent, reduction, and it seemed at one time likely that it would succeed; but the market’s re covery at the end of the year turned the scales against London.

The British officials probably will again make the same claim but definitely with less prospects of success.

The British Ministry to-day is paying South Pacific countries ap proximately £65 Stg. fob for copra which is about equal to £77 Stg. cif. The current market price in London is about £9O Stg. cif.

As the British Ministry deliber ately made this contract with a view to stabilising the South Pacific copra industry at a time of some uncertainty, the British Ministry is entitled to some advantage under the contract. It has had that ad vantage. During the five years of the contract (1949-53), the world price has been almost always well in advance of the MOP price as it is to-day. Taking everything into consideration the copra industry of the South Pacific should be able to count on at least the present price in 1954 and, in fact, some shrew der traders may be able to make out

a good case for a somewhat higher MOP price in 1954.

As the MOF Contract is now half done it has four more years to go and will expire at the end of 1957 and as the reduction pro vision has not y e t been put into operation, it looks as if the South Pacific copra industry is due for a further period of stability.

Drought May Affect Copra

The long dry spell in Fiji, Tonga and Samoa in recent months is ex pected to lower the copra yield from all three territories.

Copra producers in Fiji in October thought that the yield might fall by 7,000 or 8,000 tons of copra this year, as compared with last year’s peak yield of 40,000 tons.

Ear

Planters

Mof Price

Rec’D,

£Stg. per £ Aust. per ton ton 1949 48 48 1950 48.10 48.10 1951 53.15 54.5 1952 65 69.5 1953 65 70