Hurricanes!
p. 16 · Read in the full issue
Substitute Science for Human Factor in Forecasting Hurricanes!
LATE in January, four Territories in the South Pacific were battered by winds of hurricane force. None seems to have had much warning of the storm. One — Fiji which suffered grievous damage, had practically no warn ing; a terrible hurricane hit the capital within 90 minutes of the first broadcast intimation that something ugly wes developing.
The Fiji authorities doubtless will find out why the meteorological warning system, on which all the South Pacific Territories depend at this time of year, broke down on this occasion.
The purpose of this note is to suggest that the time has come for a review of the whole system. There appears to be about it an element of catch-as-catch-can. The importance of giving adequate warning of these disastrous tropical storms, and the degree of scientific knowledge now available in this field, allow of no excuse for casual ness and irresponsibleness in the weather-warning system.
Even under the old and existing system, it is possible to give warn ing of a developing hurricane many hours before it strikes. Meteoro logists in Wellington, NZ, knew about the Fiji hurricane as soon as it was born west of the Solomons on Wednesday, January 23—four days before it struck Fiji—and they followed its course eastwards. They say it passed the New Hebrides on Friday night. Obviously, Fiji could have had ample warning; and, if it had, a large proportion of Suva’s lost roofs might have been retained.
Officials doubtless will claim that weather-reporters were off duty at the week-end and that there are few reporting stations in the region northwest of Fiji, anyway. That is
the catch-as-catch-can element, which should be eliminated.
There is no need for complete de pendence on scattered weather-re porters. It now is possible to detect, on seismograph records, the de velopment of big storm centres, and to read from the microseisms, the movements of the storm. It is a new branch of the science of geo physics, and it was described six months ago as “developing by leaps and bounds.”
Scientists then claimed that “the seismographic method of detecting and tracking hurricanes enables accurate warnings to be given con siderably in advance of those possible by other present-day methods.”
The South Pacific Commission already has given thought to the creation of a better meteorological network. Here, now, is an urgent job right at its hand. With the devastation in unwarned Suva to show the urgent need for action, it could do much, before next hurri cane season, to take the guesswork and the uncertain human element out of the weather-forecasting or ganisation in the South Pacific.