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How European Events Affect Japan and the Pacific

ON March 15, perman troops marched into Czecho-Slovakia; and, within 48 hours, that vigorous, proud, non- Germanic nation had been overwhelmed, looted and stamped out of existence.

Hitler, at the Peace of Munich, in September, gave Britain and France his pledge that Germany sought no more territory in Europe, and that international troubles should be settled in future by conference. On March 15, coldly and deliberately, like any criminal gangster, he broke his word. For six months, the democracies had been pursuing the way of appeasement ; confidence was returning; international trade was improving. But, on March 15, Britain and France, and the half-dozen smaller nations which cluster within the orbit of their protection, recognised finally that “dictator” did more than rhyme with “traitor”; the terms were synonymous, They knew now that the Munich agreement, grasped at so eagerly by a world hungry for peace, had been regarded by the political hoodlums of Berlin merely as a method of pulling the leg of a futile old gentleman with an umbrella. It was clear that Germany, Italy and Japan, if not checked, would proceed to seek new empire with the sword. Within a week, Germany seized Memel. On April 7 (Good Friday!) Italy over-ran Albania.

But already on March 15 the course of history was being changed. The reaction of the democracies was immediate, tremendous and far-reaching. In the view of Berlin, Mr. Chamberlain and his urn- Vvrplla rnav havp flip prnbodiniollt

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of the democratic world gave him honour because it recognised that he had gone to the uttermost limits to preserve peace and the international decencies. Mr.

Chamberlain led the democracies to Munich. After March 15 with equal definiteness of purpose, he exchanged his umbrella for a gun, and grimly led the democracies in a frank and open recognition of the fact that the dictatorships may not be trusted; that jungle law has been let loose upon civilisation; and that our only hope of safety, while dictatorship lasts, lies in armaments and more armaments, and readiness to fight at a moment’s notice.

Britain, supported by France, pro ceeded to arrange an Anti-Aggression Pact, for mutual protection against attack by the dictatorships. Poland joined the Pact on April 6. Roumania and Jugoslavia are hesitant. Russia remains in the background, but indicates goodwill, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark and Greece probably will support the Pact, . n£> now> what? The whole world has yi the “jitters”. Armies and armaments are banking up, in ever-increas . masses The more crazy type of newspapers are insisting, “It is not, Will there b e W ar, but When will the war . r , r „ But it not as bad as it appears. Phe democracies will not attack. This means that war will come only when the dic tators deliberately attack a nation which the democracies insist shall remain free; and there is nothing yet to show if or when that will occur. The seizure of Czecho-Slovakia may have been sufn cient to start a European war, but it came so suddenly that the democracies were not prepared to act, and it caused only the break-up of the appeasement plan, initiated at Munich. The seizure of Memel and of Albania did not set the armies moving—Memel is German, any way, and bandit Albania long ago sold herself to Italy. Even if the Axis Powers

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But Poland must be kept in existence as an independent nation; and any Ger man move against Poland certainly will lead to disaster. Ever since Britain so quickly formed the Anti-Aggression Pact, and made it clear that the democracies would fight to protect Poland, the Ger man newspapers have been sneering and snarling at Britain; and as the German Press is completely under the direction of the dictator and his gang, it would appear that Germany had planned a campaign against Poland, which British “interference” dislocated, This survey suggests that, except for

one factor, the probabilities now are against a major war. Every sane man in Western Europe —and, indeed, in the world —knows that war between the Great Powers will either destroy Euro pean civilisation altogether, or put its structure so completely out of gear that life will not be worth living for many de cades to come. The Axis Powers must know that they now cannot defeat a combination of Britain, France and Po land, backed by the benevolently neutral United States and Russia. They know that war will mean simply an indefinite period of frightful mutual destruction in which, after the first shock, the advantage will lie increasingly with the democracies. The dictators will go to the very brink of war, but they will not fight—unless they are mad.

And, there, we have the unknown fac tor? Is Hitler sane? Many things indi ate that he is far from normal. If he is the monomaniac that some believe, he may yet push Germany over into the abyss. He may send his armies against an important Eastern European country and defy the democracies to do their worst; or he may at any moment try the thing that he has planned and explained in his book, and launch, without any warning, an overwhelming air attack upon London and Paris. He is incalculable and completely undependable, and while he remains in power, there can be no security. But every week that passes strengthens the position of the democra cies and weakens the hold of the dicta tors, if only for the reason that both of them are being overtaken steadily by an economic Nemesis.

IT was necessary to sketch in the Euro pean background rather fully, before turning to the outlook in the Pacific.

If Britain and Prance do become em broiled in war in Europe, there will be nothing between the Japanese fleet and the Anglo-French dominions in the Pacific, except the United States war ships. There are no Anglo-French naval forces worthy of the name east of Suez — Britain and France dare not send them out of European waters, so long as Hit ler is running around, untied. Britain has at Singapore one of the world’s strongest naval bases—and no navy to put in it. The United States have in the north-western Pacific a fleet quite cap able of taking care of the Japanese. We in the South Seas believe in our hearts that the Americans will not allow the

Asiatics to seize European territories in the Southern Pacific; but we have no guarantee of what America will do.

European naval experts seem to have little respect for the Japanese fleet; and Japan’s adventure in China has exposed pitilessly her military and aviation weak nesses. Her armies, for the present, are literally bogged in China; and the Chinese campaign clearly is exhausting her economic strength. Japan never has been tested in war against a first-class European Power, and if she is tested under present conditions, she may prove a less formidable opponent than has been

THIS was published in “P.1.M.” In October, 1938, just after Britain, France, Ger many and Italy made the Pact at Munich:— “This seems all to the good—but Western European hopes depend abso lutely upon a humbly-born person named Adolf Hitler. He is the mystery-man of the moment. If he plays the game with Mr. Chamberlain, a Western European pact may do much to ensure the peace and progress of humanity. But, for a time— two or three years, maybe—we shall not know whether Hitler is a kind of mad man, or one of the greatest figures in history. Anglo-French opinion, at the moment, is friendly to the Germans and to Hitler; but we cannot yet forget how this man massacred the suspected anti- Nazis, on June 30, 1936, and how callously he broke his pledged word to Mussolini and to Schuschnigg last March, and seized Austria.”

expected. But she can be formidable, in deed. if she has not to meet the forces of a first-class Power.

Beyond any shadow of doubt, there is some close understanding between Japan, Germany and Italy; Japan is following every move in Europe with feverish in terest; and if Britain and France become deeply involved in Europe, Japan—despite her grave military preoccupation in China —will use her naval and air forces to extend Japanese dominion over British and French possessions in South-west Asia and the Pacific. Cochin China, Hong Kong, Borneo, Malaya, Burma, India, Cey lon, Dutch East Indies, New Guinea—what an empire for the economically-embar rassed Japanese to seize and loot!

That these possibilities are no longer “the imaginings of a sensation-loving press”—as was suggested when they were first outlined in this journal five years ago—is indicated by the steps being taken hurriedly by the British and French in the Pacific. It is not wise to publish de tails: but much is being done and done quickly.

Even if the Americans kept out of it, it is unlikely that the Japanese would risk a thrust so far southwards as Aus tralia and New Zealand; but New Guinea, the Solomons, Nauru, and the Gilbert and Ellice Islands would be in the dan ger zone, and Fiji would be at least sub ject to raids. Japan might not have large military forces available for occupying such countries as Cochin China, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies; but she could do much with light military forces, co-operating with her navy; and her war ships would simply decimate all Anglo- French-Dutch commerce in the North west Pacific and Indian Ocean.

The temper of the Japanese is per fectly plain. They are waiting and pray ing for a major European war. With in creasing cheekiness, they have slapped the face of the British in China, have seized the great island of Hainan, in be tween French territory and Hong Kong; and early in April, in the most impu

dent manner possible, they annexed the Spratley Islands, a French group of great stategic importance, lying between Hong Kong and Singapore. They seem to be timing their moves with those of Ger many and Italy.

If there is a major war in Europe, and America does not step in to preserve the status quo in the Pacific, Britain's Asiatic empire will be in the gravest danger, while the property and even the lives of all Europeans in the Western Pacific territories will be unsafe. There is no merit in hiding the facts.

BUT the crisis probably will be past before this journal is distributed in the Pacific. If Hitler is for war, the war will come very quickly. If he avoids a major conflict, we may expect a long period of armed peace. Such a peace will be very difficult for Hitler and Mussolini for obvious economic reasons, and it will be disastrous for Japan. The immediate Japanese menace will remain so long as the present Fascist military clique holds power in Tokio. But, if there is to be no major war, the Japanese Gov ernment almost certainly will break under the double strain of maintaining the mili tary machine in China and supporting the economic structure at home.

There is more than love of peace in the reluctance of the democracies to go to war. There is very sound strategy. It will pay them to wait.