Copra Price

Review of World-wide Conditions

npHE copra market continues sickly, in * comparison with the conditions of a year ago.

In this connection, copra is sharing, with many other commodities, conditions which are a puzzle to students of wond markets. Cocoa prices, for example, have tumbled in the most startling fashion— and yet there appears to be no adequate reason for the sudden change in the market. If the price of base metals which existed six months ago was only haif jastified, the price to which these metals .have 'fallen in the past month is ridi culous. Take gold, for example. It is still worth in Britain and America precisely what it was worth in March last. Yet the quotations for the shares of the really solid gold-producing companies have fal len in most extraordinary fashion.

So if there seems to be a kind of mad ness over the copra market, it is well to remember that a similar madness is play ing ducks and drakes with the rates quoted in other important markets.

Mr. H. M. F. Faure, in his report issued in London on October 14 (sent to us by air mail), says that developments during the past four weeks have been disturbing, because it was becoming clear that world supplies of oils and fats over the next 12 months would be considerably in excess of those of the past year. The American cotton crop estimates had enor mously increased, representing a corres pondingly huge increase in the produc tion of cotton-seed oil. There was also a very large increase in the Egyptian cotton crop. The Indian crop of ground-nuts apparently would provide an exportable surplus of over 20 per cent, increase. The Niger ground-nut crop was up 20 per cent. All the reports from the Mediter ranean centres indicate an increase in the production or olive oil. The produc tion of Manchurian soya beans was likely to be about the same as last year. There were indications that the production of Antarctic whale oil would be largely in creased owing to the activities of Japan and Germany.

Mr. Faure concludes that “on the basis of supply and demand, the outlook is for lower levels over next year.” At the same time, he issues an emphatic warn ing against undue pessimism, and sets out a number of reasons for his belief that the situation will quickly cure itself.

He points to increased consuming power —such as the great activity all over the world in armaments and shipping, high freight rates, and the fact that consumers now are buying from hand to mouth—all being factors likely to prevent any cala mitous slump in prices. 9 Mr. G. Wade, 54, who retired a year ago from the managership of B.P. and Co.’s branch at Tavua, Fiji, died at Ba early in November.