Quick International Changes Affect
pp. 5-6 · Read in the full issue
Pacific Territories
OINCE, eight weeks ago, we explained the probable effect upon the Pacific of Japan’s attack on China, international events have moved with extraordinary rapidity. To-day, we face a world situa tion. that, compared with a year ago, is greatly changed.
Japan, breaking the Nine-Power Treaty and openly defying Britain, U.S.A. and France, has thrown her whole strength against China, and now is quickly over running that country.
Military and naval influences—practi cally Fascist have gained control in Japan; with the result that a Pact has been signed between Germany, Italy and Japan. The Pact is intended to guard Japan against Britain, France and Amer ica (whose Far Eastern interests are pro foundly affected), while she is “cleaning up” China.
Germany, with the clearly-stated ap proval and support of Japan, has renewed her demand for the return of her “colonies.” This directly affects New Guinea and Samoa. Formerly, while Japan maintained the attitude that she would in no circumstances allow the Marshall and Caroline Islands to go back to Germany, Australia and New Zealand could not contemplate any change in the
status of New Guinea and Samoa, But if Japan is prepared to abandon her man date, Australia and N.Z. may be asked to do likewise.
The break in the ancient friendship and alliance between Britain and Japan, and the control of China by Japan, pro foundly alters the status quo in the Paci fic; while the Germany-Japan-Italy Pact tends more definitely to isolate Britain and France in Europe. Obviously, this has caused much anxiety among British statesmen.
Fortunately for Britain, the China- Pacific development has brought in the United States, which would not have been interested in European affairs alone.
Britain, America, France, and Holland have been acting in close co-operation in dealing with the China situation. Hol land, because of the threat to the East Indies, is deeply concerned. Although not a major Power, Holland is a strong, well governed nation, and her co-operation at this time is valuable.
Italy, psychologically and financially, is the weakest of the Powers, and Ger many is not very happy in her new alliance. She would rather be with Britain. Britain is not quite happy in her alliance with Prance. There recently
have been very disturbing signs of poli tical decadence in France, and Britain does not like France’s alliance with Com munist Russia—at present, the quiet and silent enigma of the European-Asiatic situation. Britain dislikes both German Fascism and Russian Communism: but, of the two, naturally would prefer the German association.
Britain will not abandon France; but if she can bring Germany in with Britain and America, while maintaining good relations with France, thus guarantee ing European peace, she will draw the teeth out of the Germany-Italy-Japan Pact, and so gain freedom to deal with the dangerous China-Pacific situation.
To-day, the German demand for colonies must be a matter for bargaining be tween Britain and France on one side, and Germany, Italy and Japan on the dther. But if Germany can be detached from that Fascist group, the situation would he more easily handled.
On the day that this is written, the newspapers contain announcements of much importance. Lord Halifax, on Nov ember 19, on behalf of the British Cab inet, flew from London for a day-long 'private conference with the Dictator of Germany; and plans are being made in London and ’Washington for a new treaty of reciprocal trade between the United States and the British Empire. The two things are connected, of course. What is planned is a readjustment of tariffs to allow freer trade between Britain, Amer
ica and France, and probably Holland and Scandinavia. Germany can come in and enjoy new trade opportunities and, possibly, acquire a new colonial empire; or she can stay out and do the best she can in an alliance with Italy and Japan.
On, the one hand, we should have a combination of Western European Pow ers with the United States, strong enough to keep a check upon an aggres sive and (in China) victorious Japan. On the other hand, if Germany, Italy and Japan are to march together in alliance, Britain, America, France and Holland will have to go fully armed every hour of the day and night, so that they may protect their vital interests in Asia and the Pacific India, Ceylon, Burma, Malaya, Cochin-China, East Indies, Hong kong, Philippines, New Guinea and all the British and French territories in the South Seas, and Hawaii.
All the foregoing are facts—there is no supposition among them. And the logic of these facts, as they exist at the mom ent, is inescapable. If Britain and France give Germany the colonial territory and the trade opportunities for which she clamours, she will join a Western Euro pean alilance, and thus we may have some guarantee of world peace and, freer international trade. Japan then, will be virtually isolated and can be “held.”
Whether accidentally or by design, the issue apparently hinges on the colonial territorial concessions to be made to Germany. We hold still 'to the belief that German needs will be satisfied, for the present with some slices of Africa, and that the Pacific territories will not be disturbed. But that merely is an opinion.
The international developments of the next few weeks will be very interesting to Pacific residents.