“Prosperity” And Goose-Stepping
pp. 5-6 · Read in the full issue
TTiESE are the wisest words pub- 1 lished during the month:- .. A Sir Walter Carpenter uttered a warning (and this, he emphasised, was his personal view and was not necessarily that of the other directors), that the present prosperity was based on the rush of nations to construct armaments m
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period as possible. Slackness would inevitabiy follow the rush. Governments should stop borrowing for public works, public works programmes.”
This significant statement, which every politician and every merchant should paste in his hat, was buried away in a report of the annual meeting of W. R. Carpenter and Co. Ltd.
What student of world affairs can doubt that Sir Walter is right? Two years ago every country was embarrassed by great unemployment and poverty. Then the nations, led by Germany, Italy, and Russia, began furiously to arm. Huge armies were organised; incredible quantities of munitions and war machinery were
ordered. We know what happened in the case of Britain. The whole Empire awoke to the peril of its unarmed con dition ; and, since 1934, warships and aeroplanes and armaments generally have been manufactured in British fac tories on a scale never before known in peace time.
That has been happening in nearly every country; and, of course, millions of men who had been standing idle are now in regular employment as soldiers, sailors, airmen, or workers in the in numerable industries which supply armaments. Generally speaking, the unemployment terror has disappeared.
The nations found new work for their people to do—the work of defence— and the tragic gap between the needs of the nation, and the number of men available to supply those needs, has been closed. In many countries — Britain, especially—men who for years were unemployed are now working, and earning, and spending; and a con
we call “ prosperity ” has But how long will this last? Ob viously, only so long as the demand for armaments continues. While the nations are in this frenzy of goose , . , , P „ii Stepping, and are clamouring for all kinds of destructive or defensive equip , t „ A r hu I nd^ ec |f of thoi sa^ ds °.
Will be kept busy ; and the price Ot scores of commodities will remain high, . , But, inevitably, sooner or later, the nations will have made good their C °TT Tu' deficiencies in war material and then they must plan a much modified pro gramme, designed only to keep their defences efficient and ready. Does it not follow, as certainly as the night follows day, that many less men will be required ; and that there must ensue anot her period of economic readjust ment> atte nded by slump, unemploy ment, and suffering? study of history since 1900 shows that these things have gone in cycles; and, because there is no semblance of economic planning between nations, they will continue to run in cycles, Machinery, scientific organisation of
industries, mass production—all these mean that a nation’s normal peacetime needs can be supplied by fewer men, working under the old rates and con ditions. There is “not enough work to go round.” Therefore, under our exist ing lunatic system three-quarters of our men work, and are specially taxed to maintain the other quarter in misery on the dole. Under such conditions war scares and war come as blessings: the workless section of the people are provided with employment—and the whole nation is taxed a little more heavily to provide armaments instead of the dole.
If there is no war, it is inevitable, as Sir Walter Carpenter says, that a period of economic slackness will fol low all this goose-stepping: and wise men will make provision accordingly.
In the Pacific Islands the warning should be heeded. For many months now, week by week, the market for copra has been active and rising: and the majority of planters now are taking their profit and facing the future blithely. Administrators are regarding comfortable surpluses with complac ency, and planning expenditure on more spacious lines than they have known for half a decade. A tendency to speculate is being disclosed among monied interests in some of the terri tories.
Planters and administrators and merchants should go cautiously for a while, and see what comes out of this international imbroglio. If there is to be war between some of the nations, the demand for national service and war material will continue indefinitely, so that everyone will be busy and money will circulate. But if all this international snarling is based merely upon hot air, there undoubtedly will come a time when “rearmament pros perity” will dwindle, and when the world, faced again with a wilderness of tariff walls, and a tangle of ex changes and restrictions, will be unable to trade with freedom or profit.
Men at the head of affairs, while the outlook is so uncertain, should play safe.
Mr. Lionel Dudley, a preacher of the Yarrawonga Church of Christ, Victoria, has resigned in order to undertake mis sionary work in the New Hebrides.
Rev. W. H. MacFarlane, who spent 17 years as an Anglican missionary in Torres Strait, is seriously ill at his home in Scotsdale, Tasmania. He recently underwent an operation in St. Margaret’s Hospital, Launceston, and has been sent home in order to rebuild his strength in readiness for another and more serious operation.