Products Of The South Seas

Definite Improvement In Copra Market

THE latest London quotation for copra is £16/7/6, c.i.f. A glance over the range of prices, published in another column, shows a steady, grad ual rise, from £10/5/- per ton on September 4, to £16/7/6 on February 13.

This is cheering. Copra is a very long way from the 1921-29 average, but (expressed in terms of British cur rency), it is at least creeping back to a figure which will permit the planter to live.

We must remember, however, that the London price carries an exchange premium, which has been introduced since Britain went off the gold stand ard at the end of September. When copra jumped from £10/7/6, on Sep tember 18, to £12/15/- on October 9. there was “nothing to it”—copra was worth only the same amount in gold The quotation in October was the same as in September, when expressed in francs or dollars, which remained on the gold standard. But, as the price of British commodities remained the same, as expressed in British currency, the British copra producer was, of course, over £2 per ton better off. He got the definite benefit of the ex change, because the purchasing power of the British £ remained the same.

But, since October 9, copra has kept on increasing in price, from £12/15to £16/7/6. That is, it has increased in intrinsic value. Over £3 of the

£16/7/6 is accounted for by the ex change premium; but the remainder of the increase since September (roughly £3 per ton) represents a definite im provement in the market. Most of the latter improvement has come in the last six weeks.

Since it became possible to use other vegetable oils, and whale oil, for many purposes for which coconut oil was once exclusively used, it i s very difficult to forecast the copra market. One can only say that a general improvement in world trading must benefit copra— and if prices are going to hold at £16 (London), with world economic condi tions still so depressed, it follows that a further improvement in world trad ing may lift the copra price further towards £20 per ton—which is the only figure which will give real comfort to all concerned in copra production.

Unfortunately, copra is an entirely unregulated product, the supply being subject always to demand. The recent low prices certainly reduced output, which probably gave the price a lift.

With equal certainty the new high price will revive production, with a lowering effect on prices.

However, let us count our blessings! £16/7/6, c.i.f., London, is a price that— even with the exchange premium—we had not expected to see for many months yet. It is, from all viewpoints, an excellent and encouraging sign.